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Chapter 1: Introduction

Future patterns of land use and land cover must be understood at a range of spatial and temporal scales to characterize and predict the behavior and impacts of the Earth’s land use, climate, carbon, water, ecological and socioeconomic systems.   Scientific research on land use and land cover change has both resource management and strategic relevance.

Current research for land use and land cover change is spread across various agencies addressing both basic and applied science questions.   Basic science questions for example focus on:

1. the dynamics of change in land use and land cover;
2. the integration and feedbacks between land use systems and climate, socioeconomic and ecological systems;
3. the resilience, vulnerability, and adaptability of coupled natural and human systems;
4. spatial and temporal scale issues; and
5. accuracy issues and predictive skill.

Applied science questions for example focus on:

1. evolving national and international public and private land management questions and decisions that call for new data and information and improved scientific bases for decision-making;
2. the interpretation and communication of scientific knowledge for adaptive management of land use systems;
3. human and socioeconomic responses to change; and
4. explicit management of uncertainties and definition of the limits to applicability of change projections and other analyses, particularly as translated into decision support.

Applied science questions need to address fundamental questions on the impact of land use change on the provision of ecological goods and services such as food, water supply and biodiversity as well as human well-being, sustainability and land degradation.

The more applied aspects of the research program for land use and land cover change need to meet stakeholder needs.. In this context, stakeholders are defined as those who can benefit from an improved scientific understanding of land use.   To ensure relevancy of the applied research, stakeholders must be involved in the research at all stages including formulation of research questions and research teams.   Land use change, human health, biodiversity, and regional stability are important considerations and land use planning is a priority issue for most countries. Land use related issues such as food and water security and human health are a high priority for developing countries. The program that is developed will need to keep a balance of national and international research.

Chapter 6 of the Strategic Plan identified two overarching research questions:

1. What processes determine the temporal and spatial distributions of land cover and land use at local, regional, and global scales, and how and how well can land use and land cover be projected over time scales of 5-50 years?
2. How may changes in land use, management, and cover affect local, regional, and global environmental and socioeconomic conditions, including economic welfare and human health, and taking into consideration socioeconomic factors and potential technological change?

The research program to answer these questions needs to be based on a thorough understanding of the physical environmental, ecological, economic, social, cultural, and decision processes that characterize and control land use and land cover systems.   Observations, monitoring, data management and analysis, modeling and projection, assessment and evaluation of consequences and impacts are essential components of the research and must be coupled with other program elements of the US Global Change Research Program.

The following sections elaborate on the five LULCC research questions identified in Chapter 6 of the Strategic Plan. Specific goals are identified with their associated time-line, priority and cost. Priority 1 is assigned to those goals which are critical or need an immediate start to provide a foundation for the ten year program. Recognizing that not all the research can be funded at once, Priority 2 means the research is needed but these research activities can implemented at a slower rate or start later than Priority 1.   Costs are given as an estimate of what would be needed to address each question in a comprehensive way during the ten year program. The tasks and estimated costs are summarized in Table 1. The overall level of funding needed for this multi-agency research program is estimated to be c. $16 Million a year for 10 years.