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Chapter 5:  Interactions of Land Use and Land Cover Change with Climate Variability and Change

Introduction

Land use and land cover change are linked in complex ways to global climate change, and the feedback between the two exists at multiple spatial and temporal scales.   Land use and land cover affect climate through changes in greenhouse gas emissions, albedo and surface roughness, while climate variability and change, in turn, can affect the ways in which land is used and the land cover of a given area.   Research is needed to improve knowledge and understanding of how climate variability and change affect land use and land cover, and to identify potential feedbacks of changes in land use and land cover to climate.   Research is also needed to identify past changes in land use and land cover that are attributable to changes in climate in order to project future changes in land use and land cover that could result from changes in climate. There are three strategic steps needed to answer the overarching question of interrelationships between climate variability and change and land use and land cover, identified in Chapter 6.

Specific Research Goals

5.1 Assess the current state of scientific understanding and research needed to meet stakeholder needs on the climate and land use and to focus this research on national and regional climate change (Ongoing – Priority 2)

There is considerable interest to understand the vulnerability of land use and land cover to climate variability, including the impact of potential extreme events and change, for example the impact of long term drought on land use and the associated physical and socioeconomic conditions warrants attention.    Further study is needed to better understand how land surface changes force weather, climate variation, and climate change. There is also interest in better quantifying how climate variability and change affect land use and land cover change with respect to global carbon and nitrogen dynamics.

5.2 Conduct sensitivity studies to determine the atmosphere response to forcing from land cover variables and to identify resulting feedbacks to the land surface from the atmosphere at climatological time scales and at spatial scales ranging from local to global.   (Ongoing, 4 years   – Priority 2)

This requires an assessment to detect scientific gaps in previous sensitivity studies and to identify stakeholder needs.   This assessment should include the development of a common data-model framework and experimental design for future sensitivity studies [less than 2 years]. Sensitivity studies of natural factors (e.g., storms, herbivory, and fire) and anthropogenic factors (e.g., cultivation, fossil emissions, and infrastructure development) are needed to improve our understanding of the contributions of the various land-surface processes (e.g., energy, albedo, greenhouse gases, and aerosols) to atmospheric forcing [4 years].

5.3 Understand the integrated interactions, including feedbacks, between land use/land cover and the atmosphere [Years 3 – 6, Priority 2].  

This understanding must have a basis in long-term observations and ongoing model development. .It requires new dynamic models developed specifically to capture the feedback between land use and the atmosphere. Partnerships will be needed with other elements of the CCSP.   

Timeline and costs

Total cost to realize this research strategy focused on interactions of land use and land cover change with climate variability and change is $40M, or an average of $4M per year.