By Donald Boesch, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science; and Donald Scavia, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Recent experiences, from disastrous hurricanes to storms and other distant consequences of the El Niño, have heightened public awareness of the effects of climate variability on coastal environments and marine resources. Not only are these environments and resources dramatically affected by climate variations, but they may be highly susceptible to long term climate change.

Most attention in climate change assessments has been focused on the consequences of sea level rise for islands, shorelines, wetlands, and coastal communities. To varying degrees, sea level is rising in many parts of the world due both to sinking of coastal lands and thermal expansion of the ocean. If this is coupled with the possibility of increased ocean volume in a warming world due to glacial melting, sea level rise would have even more substantial consequences. The coastal areas and marine resources sector team will not only examine scenarios related specifically to sea level rise, but will also examine more broadly the myriad of known and potential consequences of climate variability and change on the coastal zone, the coastal ocean, and the marine resources of the nation.

Coastal environments and marine resources are affected in significant ways by storms, freshwater inputs from land and rainfall, water temperature, currents, winds and solar radiance, as well as by sea level. All of these vary with the climate, and could potentially change in major ways as a result of climate change. The assessment team will evaluate the effects of these climatic forces on the ecosystem goods and services provided by coastal environments, wetlands, estuaries, coral reefs, and ocean margin environments. The team will also examine the socioeconomic consequences of the climate-related variation and change in these systems.

The coastal areas and marine resources sector assessment will emphasize case studies. The examples chosen will provide specific examples and illustrate the complex set of interactions between the effects of these climate (i.e. variability and long-term change) and human activities (e.g. flood protection, navigation, pollution, and conservation).

Anticipated case studies include:

• Bering Sea - affected by reductions in sea ice coverage and alterations to the food chains supporting fisheries.
• Northeastern Pacific Ocean - characterized by regime shifts in the Alaska and California currents which cause profound effects on associated ecosystems and their productivity.
• San Francisco Bay Delta - affected by freshwater inflows, El Niño-related events, sea level rise, and the need to maintain urban and maritime infrastructure.
• Mississippi Delta - where low-lying communities are increasingly at risk to hurricanes and coastal wetlands are already being rapidly lost as a result of relative sea level rise due to land subsidence; and where climate impacts the delivery of freshwater, sediments, and nutrients by the river.
• South Florida - where changes in sea level and freshwater inputs affect the Everglades and Florida Bay, and where coral reefs are influenced by climate factors.
• Mid-Atlantic estuaries such as the Chesapeake Bay - where variations and changes in freshwater inputs and sea level rise complicate efforts to restore ecosystems degraded by eutrophication and habitat loss.

The coastal and marine sector assessment team has been formed and has had its first organizational meeting. It is currently assembling retrospective data and analyses and future model projections of such factors as temperature, freshwater runoff, storm frequency and intensity, sea level, sea ice, human population and development, wetlands, fisheries, shoreline erosion rates, and salinity. The team is co-chaired by Donald Boesch of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science in Cambridge, MD and Donald Scavia of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

For more information, contact:

Don Scavia, National Ocean Service, NOAA; 1305 East-West Highway, Room 13508, Silver Spring, Maryland 20910; phone: (301) 713-3060; email: Don_Scavia@cop.noaa.gov.