Food System Vulnerability to Drought

The nature of threats to food supplies posed by weather and climate variability has changed dramatically since the devastating droughts of the 1930s and 1950s. The damage to production agriculture by these historic droughts had destructive economic, social, and environmental impacts on the entire landscape of the Southern Great Plains and Rio Grande regions. By the 1990s, when severe drought plagued the region, the serious impacts were typically at the farm and rural county scale with minimal consequences for the regional macroeconomy. The impact of severe drought on agriculture has transitioned from being a "high profile" economic issue to an issue with relatively "low visibility" due to structural and functional changes in agribusiness. Our preliminary findings and hypotheses are:

1. Modernization and consolidation of agribusiness have increased food security during periods of weather and climate extremes.

Texas is the dominant economic player in the agricultural economy of the Southern Great Plains region, with agricultural product sales of $13.8 billion in 1997. Texas also leads the nation in receipts for livestock and livestock products and in farm real estate value. Trends in Texas agribusiness include: modernization and consolidation of production agriculture; growth in the wholesale and retail trade of food products; and the diminished value of farm products as a percentage of the total economy as the regional economy has become more diverse. Government farm policies and technology have been the driving forces that most influenced these trends.

Two major consequences of modernization of agribusiness are especially important. First, large-scale production agriculture has the resources to incorporate technological and financial coping strategies in order to combat the impacts of climate variability. Texas provides an example of consolidation of agricultural production systems. From 1969 to 1996, there was a 43% decline in the number of counties with profitable farming activity. The number of counties accounting for 75% of total farm earnings has also declined from 78 in 1969 to 30 in 1996. This spatial consolidation of the most profitable production agriculture systems into larger, vertically integrated farms tends to decrease vulnerability of the overall agricultural enterprise to weather and climate variability. These large, well-financed farms are more likely to adopt new technologies and methods for coping with weather extremes and changing markets. Second, food procurement in the wholesale and retail sectors of agribusiness is national and international in scope. The mobility of agricultural products continues to increase with improved techniques for preservation and transportation, food supplies rarely depend solely on local production. An interesting issue for future study is profit and loss dynamics in different sectors of agribusiness in response to weather and climate extremes. Under certain conditions the wholesale and retail sectors may actually benefit from local and regional crop failures.

2. The changing ownership patterns of farms and ranches may increase threats of weather and climate extremes to small landholders.

Small farm and ranch operators are in trouble nationwide. Historically, Federal farm programs have been structurally biased toward benefiting the largest farms, and sustainability indicators are typically negative for rural counties, with a significant fraction of income derived from small farms and ranches. The consequence of these trends is that agricultural impacts of weather and climate variability are becoming more often a local socioeconomic issue and are less frequently recognized as a regional or national economic crisis. It seems likely that the continued evolution of modern agribusiness will enhance food security while exacerbating rural poverty and vulnerability to climate variability.

Hurricane Mitch: Transboundary Impacts of a Climate Disaster

Hurricane Mitch devastated a large area of Central America in October 1998. The enormous human toll and economic destruction of this hurricane set off a wave of migration that continues to impact the Lower Rio Grande region of the U.S. today. For example, the 6,000 Central American illegal immigrants captured and detained along the Texas-Mexico border during the November to January period following Hurricane Mitch were almost double the number from the same period a year before. Of those captured or detained, more than half were from Honduras, the country that sustained the most damage. It is worth noting that Honduras is one of the poorest of the countries in Central America.

This rapid escalation of immigration pressure exacerbates existing environmental, economic, and social vulnerabilities to weather and climate extremes that are among the most serious anywhere in the U.S. The wealth and stability of the U.S. is always a magnet for people struggling to survive in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. However, the impact of a Central American hurricane has quickly turned a law enforcement management issue into an international border, humanitarian, and sustainability crisis. Our case study has documented a variety of crisis management issues that are relevant to coping with future international disasters occurring near U.S. borders. Because of such interactions, the U.S. National Assessment Program will need to look beyond U.S. borders to identify and characterize what may be the most significant threats to the America from future climate variability and change.

Regional Mini-Workshops on Coping with Climate Extremes in Urban Environments

The urban environment is not only the place where most Americans live, but also may be the most likely origin of future climate impact surprises. In the Southern Great Plains and Rio Grande regions, rapid urbanization is occurring in a relatively benign climate. Our preliminary studies signal increased threats ahead in the areas of urban flooding, energy supply, air quality, and public health. These risks are growing at an especially fast rate along the Texas-Mexico border due to unsustainable urban and community development practices. Poverty, poor land-use practices, and social isolation are major contributing factors to increased vulnerability in cities and towns throughout the region.

We are currently in the final stages of planning for two workshops concerned with how urban systems can better cope with climate extremes. A workshop in Houston, Texas, the fourth largest city in the U.S., is focused on the application of remote sensing and geographic information system technologies in reducing the impacts of extreme temperatures and precipitation. Particular attention is given to the design of specific projects that will enhance the use of vegetated landscapes for flood protection, energy management, and other coping strategies for a warmer and wetter climate scenario. This workshop will be held at the Houston Advanced Research Center, May 24-25, 1999.

A workshop in Laredo, Texas will be a design charette that produces a plan for an urban river floodplain restoration project that could benefit economic, education, recreation, and other stakeholder interests. This workshop is tentatively planned for May, 1999.

For more information, contact:

Robert Harriss, Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3136; phone: (409) 862-6301; fax: (409) 862-6301; email: harriss@tamu.edu.