By Thomas Spence, National Science Foundation

The National Science Foundation (NSF) was established to promote and advance scientific progress in the United States. In contrast to other agencies with specific missions, NSF is committed to ensuring that basic research needs of the Nation are met, principally by funding academic scientists in specific disciplines, and increasingly by funding multi-disciplinary efforts. Using a comprehensive peer review process, the Foundation makes over 9000 awards each year.

For the past decade, NSF has provided significant support for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). This program, formally established by Congress in 1990, aims to understand the complex physical and biogeochemical processes which affect and modify the Earth. NSF activities in support of the USGCRP are coordinated through an interagency process to ensure a comprehensive research program that effectively meets the needs of the Nation.

Recently the NSF and its partner agencies initiated efforts to support the Congressionally mandated National Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. As an initial contribution, NSF established a program to develop much-needed methodologies for assessment. This program, Methods and Models of Integrated Assessment, supports a number of fundamental studies to develop techniques which underpin assessment.

Along with other agencies, NSF has sponsored several components of the National Assessment. NSF is supporting regional assessment activities in New England, the Metropolitan East Coast, California, and, in cooperation with other agencies, Hawaii and Pacific Islands. Each of these regional projects has coupled scientific studies with impact assessments that are specifically focused on issues germane to the particular region. Each of these regional projects actively involves regional groups of stakeholders to ensure that the results of the research programs are translated into useful information for the decision-making process at the appropriate level. Additionally the efforts of these regional studies will provide information for use in the sector and national assessment activities.

• New England (University of New Hampshire) This regional assessment uses analyses of recent conditions and predictions of potential future scenarios to identify specific impacts on human health, forestry and water. The project has developed and fostered close contacts with a wide array of stakeholders who depend on the outcomes of global change research and assessment for their decision-making. Efforts have already enlisted the participation of local governments and civic groups. The project also plans to develop a number of important databases that will support future analyses and assessments affecting the New England area.

• Metropolitan East Coast (Columbia University) Large metropolitan areas pose a number of challenges for assessment. Cities such as New York and their environs may be subjected to a number of adverse conditions resulting from global change. This assessment study is focusing principally on human health, coastal inundation, water facilities, infrastructure, as well as community interaction and outreach in large and complex metropolitan areas. A variety of studies are already underway to determine the vulnerability of the regions to global change. A recent paper at the Spring AGU meeting called attention to the increased threat posed by storm surges with elevated sea-level conditions. Again, the results of the work should provide important information to guide decisions and guidelines for the development of additional research avenues.

• California (University of California at Santa Barbara) California, the most populous state, is exposed to a wide range of significant environmental impacts as a result of global change. This project is focusing on several potentially affected sectors including urban and water systems, coastal effects, agriculture, and ecosystems. It is building on earlier efforts that enlisted representatives of a large number of stakeholders through an extensive outreach effort. The approach will be to coordinate existing efforts of the California scientific community through modeling, scenario development, and impact assessment.

• Hawaii and Pacific Islands (Hawaii East-West Center) Several US agencies (NSF, DOI, NASA, NOAA) have collaborated to support this regional assessment project in the Pacific. Hawaii and the Pacific Islands are particularly vulnerable to impacts of climate change. The project will specifically address water resources, extreme events, and climate-related coastal hazards. A key component of the project is the interaction with stakeholders and the development of appropriate infrastructure to enhance and support community involvement.

Although obviously sharing many issues in common, the four regional assessments cited above address very different issues and speak to quite different audiences and stakeholders. As a result, they illustrate the broad spectrum of NSF-supported regional assessment projects.

For more information:

See the NSF web site at http://www.nsf.gov.