Following completion of a 'top-down', sector by sector assessment in 1996, the UK Government decided to sponsor a stakeholder-led program on climate impacts- the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). The program is part of the ongoing research strategy on climate change of the Department of Environment Transport, and the Regions (DETR) which has the lead within Government on the issue. While the focus of the work of DETR is mitigation through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the EU stabilization target of 550 ppm of CO2 implies that 2-3° C of climate change will occur. Thus, Government support for the program recognizes that climate change has to be tackled.

UK CIP Structure and Approach

The program is advised by a Steering Committee comprised of representatives of key Government departments, public agencies, the private sector and NGOs. A Science Panel oversees the integrity of the work and a User Panel will enable stakeholders to interact directly. There are also now a number of steering committees for projects operating within the program.

The program currently has no direct funds of its own to undertake research, so has been working largely in a ‘bottom-up' mode, supporting organizations to initiate studies which assess their own vulnerability and work out their responses with the "stakeholders". It has become a new link between users and researchers and helps make connections between partners to stimulate a broad-based approach to the study of climate change impacts. In order to generate momentum it has been opportunistic and responsive to enquiries wherever they have arisen. The conceptual framework is of modular studies, which can be used to prepare an integrated national assessment. Integration will be achieved principally through:

• The common use of core data sets and scenarios.
• Development of networks of funders and researchers.
• Developing and applying specific methodologies.

The program office tries to promote the identity of UKCIP through the organization of workshops, newsletters, a website, and by daily work with stakeholders. It has overall responsibility for preparing a major report on integrated assessment, and in March 2000 a report is due on the first stage projects underway. Underpinning products for the program in the form of Technical Reports are separately funded by DETR:

• Report on climate change scenarios, Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom, launched in October 1998. The scenarios were based on the series of climate modelling experiments performed by the Hadley Centre with their HadCM2 model over the period 1995 to 1997. A CD-ROM has been made available for studies within the program. A Summary Report that explains the use climate scenarios in an accessible way has been widely distributed in the UK.
• Socio-economic scenarios - a study intended to provide baseline socio-economic scenarios for the UK has been underway. Next steps are also under consideration.
• Risk, uncertainty and decision-making -- this work will shortly start and is intended to provide guidance to policy-makers as to how they can plan for climate change without complete information.
• Costing the impacts of climate change (at planning stage)

UKCIP studies underway

Studies within the program fall into two broad groups: sub-UK/ regional and sectoral studies.

Sub-UK/regional:

• Scotland- draft finished of scoping study (covering mitigation and impacts assessment), to be launched by the new Government for Scotland, funded by The Scottish Office;

• A scoping study for Wales is about to start, funded by The Welsh Office;

• A scoping study for North West England was completed in December 1998, funded by an in-region consortium of local governments, the regional Government Office, NGOs, and the EA;
• A scoping study for South East England is underway, funded by an in-region consortium of local governments, the regional Government Office, NGOs, the EA and a major up-market magazine;

• A major conference for South West England is planned for October 1999 to look at the economic impacts of climate change on the region. It is funded by in-region universities, local business, local government, NGOs, the Duchy of Cornwall (HRH Prince of Wales' land holdings) and the regional Government Office. Reports from the Conference and other outputs will steer next stage work.

UKCIP sectoral studies:

• A scoping study of health impacts - led by Department of Health
• In biodiversity- two studies are underway: one scoping study relying on a literature review and expert judgement has been funded by two Government departments, another quantitative modelling exercise is led by specialised agencies and NGOs;
• Built environment- so far work directly within the program has been focussed on developing a project with the Association of British Insurers on subsidence; issues on data confidentiality have eventually been overcome. Other studies on the impacts of climate change on buildings had already been commissioned by central government.
• One of the priority studies identified by the original scoping study for UKCIP was the need for integrated assessments of impacts of climate change on the water sector. To develop methodologies a major study (REGIS) has been funded for 2 years looking at four related sectors (water, land use, biodiversity and coasts) in two regions (East Anglia and Northwest England; funds $500,000).

UKCIP funding 1997-2000

The bulk of the funds come from central government where UKCIP has proved to be an effective vehicle to lever involvement from a wider range of departments. Private industry's involvement so far is limited largely to the water and insurance sectors. The sums needed for involvement in scoping studies need not be large. For example, in the Southeast study, contributions of $3000 to $8,500 led to a total of $75,000 being raised, including $5000 from a major magazine that is tracking the study monthly in its publication. More difficulties arise in raising funds for fundamental research. The budget for the Core Program Office is £1.7mn over the 1997-2000 period and so far $1.3 million has been raised for projects, including $250,000 from private industry and $250,000 non-central Government.

Differences between UK CIP and US National Assessment

While there are many similarities between the US and UK programs, a number of important differences can be identified and these are listed below:

• In the UK, there is no interagency structure equivalent to the USGCRP, so this has meant the program itself is helping to develop linkages within Government.
• The program is led by one Government department and based at one university so efforts are needed all the time to diversify ownership.
• There is a greater diversity of funding within UKCIP.
• The UKCIP98 climate scenarios have provided intellectual leadership for the program.
• There is competitive bidding for contracts so this can mean there is some reluctance to share contacts/ results between contracting teams, and that can be a problem in the undertaking of a series of ongoing overlapping studies in a small country.
• Stakeholder control makes coordination is more difficult, it is not practical to think of a common template for reports for example. But the results will immediately be plugged into decision-making frameworks of stakeholders.
• Human induced climate change is accepted scientifically as a basis for action by the research community and business, as well as by the Government.
• Identification of impacts is used by Government as a rationale/ driver for its well-developed mitigation program.

For more information, contact:
Merylyn McKenzie Hedger, Head, UK Climate Impacts Programme; Union House, 12 St Michael Street, Oxford OX1 3DU, United Kingdom; phone: +44 1865 432072; fax: +44 1865 4320771; email: merylyn.hedger@ukcip.org.uk; website: www.ukcip.org.uk.