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Fall
2000
The Department of Energy's Global Change Research and Role in the
National Assessment of Climate Change |
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National Assessment
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Fall
2000
The Department of Energy's Global Change Research and Role in the
National Assessment of Climate Change |
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By Jerry W. Elwood, Office of
Biological and Environmental Research, Office of Science, U.S. Department
of Energy The
Department of Energy (DOE) is one of the major science agencies and the
third largest government sponsor of basic research in the United States.
DOE leads the Nation in much of the physical sciences and contributes in
major ways to advances in biology and environmental science. The research
programs and scientific infrastructure supported by DOE, including the DOE
national laboratory system and scientific user facilities at these
laboratories and in universities, both extend the frontiers of fundamental
science and underpin the agency's applied missions in energy,
environment, and national security.DOE's Global Change Program The research and science activities in the Department's Office of Science are organized around major themes. One of these themes is protecting Our Living Planet, which focuses on research needed to understand the interactions between energy-related emissions and the environment. The global change research programs supported by the Department's Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) that are part of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (US/GCRP) are core research activities under this theme. The major scientific challenges of this theme are to (1) understand the molecular, atmospheric, geological, and biological pathways and fate of energy by-products in the biosphere, (2) understand and evaluate the impacts of energy by-products on the biosphere; and (3) create new scientific approaches to protect the biosphere from the adverse effects of energy by-products. DOE's global change research focuses on the effects of energy production and use on the biosphere primarily through studies of climate response. It includes research in atmospheric properties and processes affecting the Earth's radiant energy balance, climate modeling, atmospheric chemistry and transport, sources and sinks of energy-related greenhouse gases (primarily carbon dioxide), consequences of climatic and atmospheric changes on ecological systems and resources, and developing methods and tools for use in conducting integrated assessments of the environmental and economic consequences of climate change and for evaluating the benefits and costs of alternative options to mitigate or otherwise respond to the consequences. It also includes support for archiving and disseminating global change data to the research community, educating and training scientists in global change, and conducting scientifically-based integrated assessments of the consequences of energy-related activities. In support of the US/GCRP, the BER global change research supports activities in four key areas: (1) Climate and Hydrology: Research in this area includes observational and analytical work to improve scientific understanding of the atmospheric characteristics, such as the amount of water vapor and other gases that affect the radiation balance from the Earth's surface to the top of the atmosphere and to improve the parameterization of these effects, especially the formation and evolution of clouds, in climate models. It also includes research to develop, test, and apply state-of the-science computer-based simulation models that predict climate variability and climate change on decade to century time scales. As part of a joint accelerated climate prediction effort by DOE and NSF beginning in FY 2000, research will be supported to develop a scalable, fully-coupled climate model and the necessary computing software to conduct a series of long-term (decade to century) simulations using massively parallel tera-scale computers. The model code and software development will enable long-term climate simulations to be run more rapidly and efficiently on the high-end parallel architecture computers that are both currently available and planned for climate modeling in the U.S. (2) Atmospheric Chemistry and Carbon Cycle: Research in the atmospheric chemistry area includes developing a more comprehensive scientific understanding of the atmospheric processes controlling the transport, transformation, and fate of energy-related chemicals and particulate materials in order to predict and assess the effects of emissions on air quality. The objectives are to (1) improve understanding of the chemical and physical processes affecting energy-related air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and ozone, including gas-to-particle conversion processes, deposition, and resuspension of associated aerosols; (2) improve understanding of meteorological processes that control the dispersion of energy-related chemicals and particulates in or released to the atmosphere; and (3) develop predictive models of the above processes and acquire the necessary data to test the models. DOE's research on carbon cycling includes field measurements and experiments to understand the biophysical processes controlling the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems and to quantify the net exchange of CO2 between major terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere (e.g., CO2 flux measurements at AmeriFlux sites). Work is also supported to evaluate the changes of carbon quantities in ecosystems in relation to rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and altered temperature and precipitation regimes. In addition, research is supported to develop and test mechanistically-based numerical models of terrestrial carbon processes which, when coupled with atmosphere carbon models, can accurately predict the rate and timing of atmospheric CO2 changes. (3) Ecological Processes: This area of research includes experimental and modeling studies to improve the scientific understanding of the effects on ecological systems and resources of changes in atmospheric composition and climate, including increases in greenhouse gases, especially CO2, and altered temperature and moisture regimes. A major focus of this research is on manipulative experiments on intact ecosystems exposed to, for example, elevated CO2 and/or ozone, or altered precipitation regimes using the Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) technology and Throughfall Displacement Experimental (TDE) approaches. In the US/GCRP, DOE is the primary sponsor of these types of large-scale manipulative field experiments that are intended to address the direct effects of atmospheric and climatic changes on intact ecosystems. (4) Human Dimensions: Research in this area focuses on developing information, methods, and models for use in conducting integrated assessments that analyze climate change from the cause, such as greenhouse gas emissions, through impacts, such as changing energy requirements for space heating due to temperature changes. The research emphasizes the development of fundamental information or methodologies, rather than the exercise of a model to, for example, evaluate specific policy or response options. The Department also supports regional global change analysis efforts to understanding the potential effects of climate change on important resources in some regions of the U.S. An example of this work includes the Regional Climate Impacts Analysis Program (RCIAP) in the Great Plains and Southeastern Regions of the U.S. The research is focused on analyzing the potential effects of different climate change scenarios on agricultural resources and economics in the Great Plains Region and forest resources and forest economics in the Southeastern Region. DOE also supports Climate Change Technology (CCT) research, which is focused on greenhouse gas mitigation R&D. This research, however, is not part of the US/GCRP. The CCT research is focused on fundamental R&D needed to develop strategies, policies, and technologies for `managing' carbon in order to mitigate its buildup in the atmosphere. This includes research to reduce CO2 emissions through changes in energy supply and improvements in energy efficiency and through the development of technologies for using or disposing of the carbon rather than emitting it to the atmosphere. It also includes research needed to develop strategies for enhancing the net sequestration in terrestrial and marine ecosystems of carbon already emitted to the atmosphere by, for example, modifying natural processes that control the net sequestration. The CCT research in DOE also includes analyses of the potential environmental implications of enhanced sequestration and disposal of carbon in these systems through, for example, injecting carbon into the deep ocean or into abandoned oil wells. DOE's Role in the National Assessment Along with other agencies, DOE has sponsored several components of the National Assessment of Climate Change and Variation for the U.S. These include the regional assessment activities in the Central Great Plains, a semi-arid region where water is a critical and often limiting resource for agriculture and can be limiting to urban and industrial development. Thus, one of the primary issues in the Central Great Plains Regional Assessment is the potential effects of climate change on water resources and agriculture and how these effects might impact rural communities dependent on agriculture. The assessment also analyzed the potential effects of climate change and variation, including extreme events on other issues of importance in the region such as the presence and distribution of invasive species and land use changes. In cooperation with the Department of Agriculture, DOE also provided some support for the Forest Sector and the Agriculture Sector assessments. The Department's contribution to the latter consisted of supporting work to simulate and analyze the modeled responses of U.S. regional agricultural productivity to selected climate scenarios, including the combined response of crop productivity to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. DOE's contribution to the Forest Sector assessment included supporting technical analyses of the potential effects of climate change on forest biodiversity and disturbances such as fires. The DOE-supported efforts also included analyzing the socioeconomic implications of changes in forest productivity, disturbances, and biodiversity due to climate change. DOE also provided support to compile and disseminate historical climate records and modeled future climate scenarios for use in assessing the potential effects of climate change and variation. The historical records were provided to allow assessments of the potential consequences of the continuation of past climatic trends, including the effects of past climatic fluctuations such as the Dust Bowl. Available climate scenarios generated by some general circulation models extending from 1900 to 2100 were also provide to the assessment community to allow analyses of the combined effects on all climatic variables of changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. The support also provided technical help to members of the regional and sectoral assessment teams to assist them in applying the climate scenarios to assess the potential effects of climate change and variation on the various regions and sectors. As the new millennium begins, DOE expects to continue to fulfill its commitments and obligations to the US/GCRP and to contribute to meeting the research and assessment mandates under the Global Change Research Act of 1990. This includes contributing to international and national assessments of global change and assisting in the development and coordination of a comprehensive and will integrated U.S. Global Change Research Program which will assist the Nation to understand, predict, assess, and respond to the impacts and consequences of human-induced and natural global changes. |
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