OUR CHANGING PLANET
The U.S. Climate Change Science Program
for Fiscal Year 2007

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Chapter References

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007 Chapter References

ACIA, 2005: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press, 1042 pp.

Angert, A., S. Biraud, C. Bonfils, C.C. Henning, W. Buermann, J. Pinzon, C.J. Tucker, and I.Y. Fung, 2005: Drier summers cancel out the CO2 uptake enhancement induced by warmer springs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102, 10823-10827.

Barnett, T., R. Malone, W. Pennell, D. Stammer, B. Semtner, and W. Washington, 2004: The effects of climate change on water resources in the West: Introduction and overview. Climatic Change, 62, 1-11.

Barnett, T.P., D.W. Pierce, K.M. AchutaRao, P.J. Gleckler, B.D. Santer, J.M. Gregory, and W.M. Washington, 2005a: Penetration of human-induced warming into the world’s oceans. Science, 309, 284-287.

Barnett, T., F. Zwiers, G. Hegerl, M. Allen, T. Crowley, N. Gillett, K. Hasselmann, P. Jones, B. Santer, P. Stott, K. Taylor, and S. Tett, 2005b: Review Article: Detecting and attributing external influences on the climate system: A review of recent advances. Journal of Climate, 18, 1291-1314.

Boote, K.J., L.H. Allen Jr., P.V. Prasad, J.T. Baker, R.W. Gesch, A.M. Snyder, D. Pan, and J.M. Thomas, 2005: Elevated temperature and CO2 impacts on pollination, reproductive growth, and yield of several globally important crops. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, 60, 469-474.

Bretherton, C.S., R. Ferrari, and S. Legg, 2004: Climate Process Teams: a new approach to improving climate models, U.S. CLIVAR Variations Newsletter, 2(1), 1-5.

Brown, T.J., B.L. Hall, and A.L. Westerling, 2004: The impact of twenty-first century climate change on wildland fire danger in the western United States: An applications perspective. Climatic Change, 62, 365-388.

Cahoon, D.R., P.F. Hensel, T. Spencer, D.J. Reed, K.L. McKee, and N. Saintilan, 2006: Coastal wetland vulnerability to relative sea-level rise: wetland elevation trends and process controls. In: Wetlands as a Natural Resource, Volume 1: Wetlands and Natural Resource Management. [Verhoeven, J., D. Whigham, R. Bobbink, and B. Beltman (eds.)]. Springer Ecological Studies series (in press).

CCSP, 2006: Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Karl, T.R., S. Hassol, C.D. Miller, and W.L. Murray (eds.)]. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 164 pp.

Cess, R.D., 2005: Water vapor feedback in climate models. Science, 310, 795-796.

Christensen, N.S., A.W. Wood, N. Voisin, D.P. Lettenmaier, and R.N. Palmer, 2004: The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin. Climatic Change, 62, 337-363.

Collins, W.D., C.M. Bitz, M.L. Blackmon, G.B. Bonan, C.S. Bretherton, J.A. Carton, P. Chang, S.C. Doney, J.J. Hack, T.B. Henderson, J.T. Kiehl, W.G. Large, D.S. McKenna, B.D. Santer, and R.D. Smith, 2006: The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3. Journal of Climate, 19, 2122-2143.

Cook, E.R., C.A. Woodhouse, C.M. Eakin, D.M. Meko, and D.W. Stahle, 2004: Long-term aridity changes in the Western United States. Science, 306, 1015-1018.

Curry, R. and C. Mauritzen, 2005: Dilution of the northern North Atlantic in recent decades. Science, 308, 1772-1774.

Delworth,T.L., A.J. Broccoli, A. Rosati, R.J. Stouffer, V. Balaji, J.A. Beesley, W.F. Cooke, K.W. Dixon, J. Dunne, K.A. Dunne, J.W. Durachta, K.L. Findell, P. Ginoux, A. Gnanadesikan, C.T. Gordon, S.M. Griffies, R. Gudgel, M.J. Harrison, I.M. Held, R.S. Hemler, L.W. Horowitz, S.A. Klein, T.R. Knutson, P.J. Kushner, A.R. Langenhorst, H.-C. Lee, S.-J. Lin, J. Lu, S.L. Malyshev, P.C.D. Milly, V. Ramaswamy, J. Russell, M.D. Schwarzkopf, E. Shevliakova, J.J. Sirutis, M.J. Spelman, W.F. Stern, M. Winton, A.T. Wittenberg, B. Wyman, F. Zeng, and R. Zhang, 2006: GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate, 19, 643-674.

Dettinger, M., D.R. Cayan, M.K. Meyer, and A.E. Jeton, 2004: Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River Basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900–2099. Climatic Change, 62, 283-317.

Emanuel, K., 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

Euliss, N.H. Jr., R.A. Gleason, A. Olness, R.L. McDougal, H.R. Murkin, R.D. Robarts, R.A. Bourbonniere, and B.G. Warner, 2006: North American prairie wetlands are important nonforested land-based carbon storage sites. Science of the Total Environment, 36, 179-188.

Farley, E.V., J.M. Murphy, M.D. Adkinson, L.B. Eisner, J.H. Helle, J.H. Moss, and J. L. Nielsen, 2006: Early marine growth in relation to higher survival for Bristol Bay Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). Transactions of the American Fisheries Society (in press).

Feddema, J.J., K.W. Oleson, G.B. Bonan, L.O. Mearns, L.E. Buja, G.A. Meehl, and W.M. Washington, 2005: The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates. Science, 310, 1674-1678.

Fung, I.Y., S.C. Doney, K. Lindsay, and J. John, 2005: Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102(32), 11201-11206.

Gnanadesikan, A., K.W. Dixon, S.M. Griffies, V. Balaji, M. Barreiro, J.A. Beesley, W.F. Cooke, T.L. Delworth, R. Gerdes, M.J. Harrison, I.M. Held, W.J. Hurlin, H.-C. Lee, Z. Liang, G. Nong, R.C. Pacanowski, A. Rosati, J. Russell, B.L. Samuels, Q. Song, M.J. Spelman, R.J. Stouffer, C.O. Sweeney, G. Vecchi, M. Winton, A.T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng, R. Zhang, and J.P. Dunne, 2006: GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part II: The baseline ocean simulation. Journal of Climate, 19, 675-697.

Gregg, W.W., M.E. Conkright, P. Ginoux, J.E. O’Reilly, and N.W. Casey, 2003: Ocean primary

production and climate: Global decadal changes. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, doi:10.1029/2003GL016889.

Han, J. and J.O. Roads, 2004: U.S. climate sensitivity simulated with the NCEP Regional Spectral Model. Climatic Change, 62, 115-154.

Hansen, J. and M. Sato, 2004: Greenhouse gas growth rates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101, 16109-16114, doi:10.1073/pnas.0406982101.

IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis – Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report [Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 881 pp.

Jacobs, K., G. Garfin, and M. Lenart, 2005: More than just talk, connecting science and decisionmaking. Environment, 47, 6-21.

Jastrow, J.D., R.M. Miller, R. Matamala, R.J. Norby, T.W. Boutton, C.W. Rice, and C.E. Owensby, 2005: Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide increases soil carbon. Global Change Biology, 11, 2057-2064.

Khairoutdinov, M., D.A. Randall, and C. DeMott, 2005: Simulation of the atmospheric general circulation using a cloud-resolving model as a super-parameterization of physical processes, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 62, 2136-2154.

Landsea, C.W., B.A. Harper, K. Hoarau, and J. Knaff, 2006: Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science, 313, 452-454.

Lean, J., G. Rottman, J. Harder, and G. Kopp, 2005: SORCE contributions to new understanding of global change and solar variability. Solar Physics, 230, 27- 53.

Leung, L.R., Y. Qian, X. Bian, W.M. Washington, J. Han, and J.O. Roads, 2004: Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the western United States. Climatic Change, 62, 75-113.

Lohmann, U. and J. Feicher, 2005: Global indirect aerosol effects: a review. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 5, 715-737.

Lubin, D. and A.M. Vogelmann, 2006: A climatologically significant aerosol longwave indirect effect in the Arctic, Nature, 439, 453-456.

Lucier, A., M. Palmer, H. Mooney, K. Nadelhoffer, D. Ojima, and F. Chavez, 2006: Ecosystems and Climate Change: Research Priorities for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program [PDF]. Recommendations from the Scientific Community. Report on an Ecosystems Workshop, prepared for the Ecosystems Interagency Working Group. Special Series No. SS-92-06, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, Solomons, MD, USA, 56 pp.

Luo, Y., D. Hui, and D. Zhang, 2006: Elevated carbon dioxide stimulates net accumulations of carbon and nitrogen in terrestrial ecosystems: A meta-analysis. Ecology, 87, 53-63.

Mason, S.J., 2004: Simulating climate over western North America using stochastic weather generators. Climatic Change, 62, 155-187.

MEA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment), 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC, USA. 137 pp.

Meehl, G.A. and C. Tebaldi, 2004: More intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science, 305, 994-997.

Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, C. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, T.M.L. Wigley, and C. Tebaldi, 2004a: Combinations of natural and anthropogenic forcings and 20th century climate. Journal of Climate, 17, 3721-3727.

Meehl, G.A., C. Covey, and M. Latif, 2004b: Soliciting participation in climate model analyses leading to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 85(29), 274, doi:10.1029/2004EO290002.

Meehl, G.A., C. Covey, B. McAvaney, M. Latif, and R.J. Stouffer, 2005: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 89-93.

Melack, J.M., L.L. Hess, M. Gastil, B.R. Forsberg, S.K. Hamilton, I.B.T. Lima, and E.M.L.M. Novo, 2004: Regionalization of methane emissions in the Amazon Basin with microwave remote sensing. Global Change Biology, 10, 530-544.

Monaghan, A.J., D.H. Bromwich, R.L. Fogt, S.-H. Wang, P.A. Mayewski, D.A. Dixon, A. Ekaykin, M. Frezzotti, I. Goodwin, E. Isaksson, S.D. Kaspari, V.I. Morgan, H. Oerter, T.D. Van Ommen, C.J. Van der Veen, and J. Wen, 2006: Insignificant change in Antarctic snowfall since the International Geophysical Year. Science, 313, 827-831.

Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, M.P. Clark, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2005: Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 39-49.

Muller-Karger, F.E., R. Varela, R. Thunell, R. Luerssen, C. Hu, and J.J. Walsh, 2005: The importance of continental margins in the global carbon cycle. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L01602, doi:10.1029/2004GL021346.

NAST (National Assessment Synthesis Team), 2001: Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. Report of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 620 pp.

Norby, R.J., E.H. DeLucia, B. Gielen, C. Calfapietra, C.P. Giardina, J.S. King, J. Ledford, H.R. McCarthy, D.J.P. Moore, R. Ceulemans, P. De Angelis, A.C. Finzi, D.F. Karnosky, M.E. Kubiske, M. Lukac, K.S. Pregitzer, G.E. Scarascia-Mugnozza, W.H. Schlesinger, and R. Oren, 2005: Forest response to elevated CO2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102, 18052-18056.

NRC, 2000: Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA, 78 pp.

NRC, 2001: Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. Committee on the Science of Climate Change, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA, 42 pp.

NRC, 2002: Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA, 230 pp.

Orr, J.C., V.J. Fabry, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, S.C. Doney, R.A. Feely, A. Gnanadesikan, N. Gruber, A. Ishida, F. Joos, R.M. Key, K. Lindsay, E. Maier-Reimer, R. Matear, P. Monfray, A. Mouchet, R.G. Najjar, G.-K. Plattner, K.B. Rodgers, C.L. Sabine, J.L. Sarmiento, R. Schlitzer, R.D. Slater, I.J. Totterdell, M.-F. Weirig, Y. Yamanaka, and A. Yool, 2005: Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature, 437, 681-686.

Pielke, R.A., C. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Laver, and R. Pasch, 2005: Hurricanes and global warming. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 1571-1575.

Pierce, D.W., 2004: Future changes in biological activity in the north Pacific due to anthropogenic forcing of the physical environment. Climatic Change, 62, 389-418.

Poumadere, M., C. Mays, S. LeMer, and R. Blong, 2005: The 2003 heat wave in France: Dangerous climate change here and now. Risk Analysis, 25, 1483-1494.

Reinsel, G.C., A.J. Miller, E.C. Weatherhead, L.E. Flynn, R.M. Nagatani, G.C. Tiao, and D.J. Wuebbles, 2005: Trend analysis of total ozone data for turnaround and dynamical contributions. Journal of Geophysical Research, 101, D16306, doi:10.1029/2004JD004662.

Ruggerone, G.T., E. Farley, J.L. Nielsen, and P. Hagen, 2005: Seasonal marine growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to competition with Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) and the 1997 ocean regime shift. Fisheries Bulletin, 103, 355-370.

Sarmiento, J.L., S.C. Wofsy, and the members of the Carbon and Climate Working Group, 1999: A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 69 pp.

Schmidt, G.A. and 35 other authors, 2006: Present-day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: Comparison to in situ, satellite, and reanalysis data. Journal of Climate, 19, 153-192.

Schmittner, A., 2005: Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation. Nature, 434, 628-633.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, C. Herweijer, N. Naik, and J. Velez, 2005: Modeling of tropical forcing of persistent droughts and pluvials over western North America: 1856–2000. Journal of Climate, 18, 4065-4088.

Sekercioglu, C.H., G.C. Daily, and P.R. Ehrlich, 2004: Ecosystem consequences of bird declines. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101, 18042-18047.

Soden, Brian J., D.L. Jackson, V. Ramaswamy, M.D Schwarzkopf, and Z. Huang, 2005: The radiative signature of upper tropospheric moistening. Science, 310, 841-844.

Stephens, G.L., 2005: Cloud feedbacks in the climate system: A critical review. Journal of Climate, 18, 237-273.

Stouffer, R.J. and 22 other authors, 2006a: Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes. Journal of Climate, 19, 1365-1387.

Stouffer, R.J., T.L. Delworth, K.W. Dixon, R. Gudgel, I. Held, R. Hemler, T. Knutson, M.D. Schwarzkopf, M.J. Spelman, M.W. Winton, A.J. Broccoli, H-C. Lee, F. Zeng, and B. Soden, 2006b: GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part IV: Idealized climate response. Journal of Climate, 19, 723-740.

Thompson, D.W.J. and J.M. Wallace, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation, Part I: Month-to-month variability. Journal of Climate, 13, 1000-1016.

Thomson, M.C., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, S.J. Mason, R. Hagedorn, R.J. Connor, T. Phindela, A.P. Morse, and T.N. Palmer, 2006: Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles. Nature, 439, 576-579.

USCLIVAR, 2002: Climate Process Modeling and Science Teams (CPTs): Motivation and Concept. Report 2002-1, Scientific Steering Committee, U.S. CLIVAR Office, Washington, DC, USA, 4 pp.

VanRheenen, N.T., A.W. Wood, R.N. Palmer, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2004: Potential implications of PCM climate change scenarios for Sacramento–San Joaquin River basin hydrology and water resources. Climatic Change, 62, 257-281.

Velicogna, I. and J. Wahr, 2005: Greenland mass balance from GRACE, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L18505, doi: 10.1029/2005GRL023955.

Velicogna, I. and J. Wahr, 2006: Measurements of time-variable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica. Science, 311, 1754-1756.

Webster, M., C. Forest, J. Reilly, M. Babiker, D. Kicklighter, M. Mayer, R. Prinn, M. Sarofim, A. Sokolov, P. Stone, and C. Wang, 2003: Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response. Climatic Change, 61, 295-320.

Webster, P.J., G.J. Holland, J.A. Curry, and H.-R. Chang, 2005: Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309, 1844-1846.

West, J.M. and R.V. Salm, 2003: Resistance and resilience to coral bleaching: implications for coral reef conservation and management. Conservation Biology, 17, 956-967.

Wittenberg, A.T., A. Rosati, N.-C. Lau, and J.J. Ploshay, 2006: GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part III: Tropical Pacific climate and ENSO. Journal of Climate, 19, 698-722.

WMO, 2003: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2002. Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project Report No. 47, Geneva, 498 pp.

Wood, A.W., L.R. Leung, V. Sridhar, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2004: Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Climatic Change, 62, 189-216

Yu, H., Y.J. Kaufman, M. Chin, G. Feingold, L.A. Remer, T.L. Anderson, Y. Balkanski, N. Bellouin, O. Boucher, S. Christopher, P. DeCola, R. Kahn, D. Koch, N. Loeb, M.S. Reddy, M. Schultz, T. Takemura, and M. Zhou, 2006: A review of measurement-based assessments of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6, 613-666.

Zimov, S. A., E. A. G. Schuur, and F. S. Chapin III, 2006: Permafrost and the global carbon budget, 312, Science, 1612-1613.

Ziska L.H. and G.B. Runion, 2006: Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and global climate change: Assessing the potential impact on agro-ecosystems by weeds, insects, and diseases. In: Agroecosystems in a Changing Climate [Newton, P.C.D., A. Carran, G.R. Edwards, and P.A. Niklaus (eds.)]. CRC Press, Boston, MA, USA, Chapter 11, 261-287.