|
Climate Action
Report 2002
The United States of America's Third National
Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change
Chapter 6: Impacts and Adaptation
May 2002
|
Projected Changes in the Intensity of US Precipitation for the
21st Century
The projected changes in
precipitation over the United States as calculated by two models indicate that
most of the increase is likely to occur in the locally heaviest categories of
precipitation. Each bar represents the percentage change of precipitation in a
different category of storm intensity. For example, the two bars on the far
right indicate that the Canadian Centre model projects an increase of over 20
percent in the 5 percent most intense rainfall events in each region, whereas
the Hadley Centre model projects an increase of over 55 percent in such events.
Because both historic trends and future projections from many global climate
models indicate an increase in the fraction of precipitation occurring during
the heaviest categories of precipitation events in each region, a continuation
of this trend is considered likely. Although this does not necessarily translate
into an increase in flooding, higher river flows are likely to be a consequence.
Source: Byron Gleason, NOAA National Climatic Data Center (updated from NAST 2000).
Library 
