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Climate Action
Report 2002
The United States of America's Third National
Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change
Chapter 6: Impacts and Adaptation
May 2002
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FIGURE 6-7 Effects of Potential Changes in
Climate on U.S Crop Yields
Results for 16 crops, given as the percentage
differences between future yields for two periods (2030s and 2090s) and current
yields indicate that warmer climate conditions are likely to lead to increased
yields for most crops. The results consider the physiological responses of the
crops to future climate conditions under either dry-land or irrigated
cultivation, assuming a limited set of reasonable adaptive response by
producers. Climate scenarios are drawn from two different climate models that
are likely to span the range of changes of future conditions, ranging from the
warm-moist changes projected by the U.K.'s Hadley Centre model (version 2) to
the hot-dry changes projected by the Canadian Climate Centre model. The most
positive responses resulted when conditions were warmer and wetter in key
growing regions (e.g., cotton), when frost occurrence was reduced (e.g.,
grapefruit), and when northern areas warmed (e.g., silage from pasture
improvement).
Source: NAAG 2002.
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