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Updated 12 October, 2003

Climate Action Report 2002 The United States of America's Third National Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Chapter 6: Impacts and Adaptation May 2002

FIGURE 6-8 Potential Effects of Projected Climate Change on Dominant Forest Types

Both the warm-moist climate change scenario from the Hadley climate model and the hot-dry scenario from the Canadian climate model suggest a significant northward shift in prevailing forest types. For example, the maple-beech-birch forest type is projected to shift north into Canada and no longer be dominant in the late 21st century in the northeastern United States.

Note: All cases were calculated using the DISTRIB tree species distribution model, which calculates the most likely dominant types of vegetation for the given climatic conditions, assuming they have persisted for several decades.

Source: A.M. Prasad and L. R. Iverson, Northeastern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, Ohio, as reported in NAST 2000.

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