Table of Contents

Summary of the National Assessment

Introduction

Weather and Climate Context

• Introduction

• Projected Changes in the Mean Climate

• Projected Changes in Climate Variability

Potential Consequences of and Adaptation to Climate Change

• Introduction

• Potential Interactions with Land Cover

  • Redistribution of Land Cover

  • Effects on the Supply of Vital Ecosystems Goods and Services

  • Effects of Increased CO2 Concentration on Plants

  • Susceptibility of Ecosystems to Disturbance

  • Potential Adaptation Options to Preserve Prevailing Land Cover

• Potential Interactions with Agriculture

  • Changes in Agricultural Productivity

  • Changes in Water Demands in Agriculture

  • Changes in Surface-Water Quality due to Agriculture

  • Changes in Pesticide Use by Agriculture

  • Effects of Changes in Climate Variability on Agriculture

  • Potential Adaptation Strategies for Agriculture

• Potential Interactions with Forests

  • Effects on Forest Productivity

  • Effects on Natural Disturbances

  • Effects on Forest Biodiversity

  • Socioeconomic Impacts

  • Possible Adaptation to Protect Forests

• Potential Interactions with Water Resources

  • Effects on Available Water Supplies

  • Effects on Water Quality

  • Effects on Snowpack

  • Effects on Ground-Water Quantity and Quality

  • Effects on Floods, Droughts, and Heavy Precipitation Events

  • Water-driven Effects on Ecosystems

  • Potential Adaptation Options to Ensure Adequate Water Resources

• Potential Interactions with Coastal Areas and Marine Resources

  • Effects on Sea Level

  • Effects on Estuaries

  • Effects on Wetlands

  • Effects on Coral Reefs

  • Effects on Marine Fisheries

  • Potential Adaptation Options for Coastal Regions

• Potential  Interactions with Human Health

  • Effects on Temperature-Related Illnesses and Deaths

  • Influences on Health Effects Related to Extreme Weather Events

  • Influences on Health Effects Related to Air Pollution

  • Effects on Water- and Food-borne Diseases

  • Effects on Insect-, Tick-, and Rodent-borne Diseases

  • Potential Adaptation Options to Ensure Public Health

• Potential Impacts in Various US Regions

Federal Research Activities

• Introduction

• Interagency Research Subcommittees

• Individual Agency Research Activities

Other Research Activities

References

Tables

• Key national findings Adapted from the US National Assessment

• Potential Adaptation Options for Water Management

• Key vulnerability and consequence issues

Figures

• Figure 6-1: Potential Effect of 21st Century Warming on the Summer Climate of Illinois

• Figure 6-2: Observed Changes in Precipitation: 1901-1998

• Figure 6-3.  Projected Changes in US Precipitation as a Function of Intensity for the 21st Century

• Figure 6-4.  Likelihood of Hurricanes to Strike the United States Based on El Nino and La Nina Occurrences

• Figure 6-5: Climatic Tendencies across North America during El Niño and La Niña Events;

• Figure 6-6: Potential Effects of Projected Climate Change on Ecosystem Distribution

• Figure 6-7.  Effects of Potential Changes in Climate on US Crop Yields

• Figure 6-8: Potential Effects of Projected Climate Change on Dominant Forest Types

• Figure 6-9: Projected Reductions in Western Snowpack Resulting from Potential Changes in Climate;

• Figure 6-10: Projected Rates of Annual Erosion along US Shorelines;

• Figure 6.11: Reported Cases of Dengue Fever: 1980-1999;