The Global Carbon Cycle
Near-Term (Fiscal Year 2009) Plans

The Global Carbon Cycle

Overview

Recent Accomplishments

Near-Term Plans

Archived News Postings [June 2000 - July 2005]

Related Sites

Calls for Proposals

  CCSP / USGCRP Carbon Cycle Working Group Members

For long term plans, see Carbon Cycle Chapter of the Strategic Plan posted on web site of US Climate Change Science Program

Carbon Cycle Science Home Page

Past Accomplishments:

Fiscal Year 2000

Climate Change Science Program.  FY 2008 Scientific Research Budget by USGCRP Research Element

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2009

Enhancing and implementing new carbon cycle studies and observation networks in high-latitude regions of the world along with continuing integration of the NACP and OCCC programs will provide valuable information and improved estimates of the carbon sources and sinks of North American and adjacent coastal systems and ocean basins and their role in the global carbon budget. Data from these observation networks will be assimilated in more comprehensive and advanced regional and global carbon cycle models, coupled carbon-climate models, and integrated Earth system analyses for assessing potential impacts of fossil fuel emissions on terrestrial and ocean ecosystems, land cover and land use, and carbon management strategies. With improved estimates of and greater certainties about the major carbon reservoirs on Earth, scientists will have new insight on how Earth systems functioned under past and present forcings, and predict better how they will respond to future climate forcings.

High-Latitude Carbon Cycle Research. Peatlands (regions of partially decayed vegetation matter) cover a relatively small fraction of the Earth’s surface but store nearly onethird of global soil carbon. Climate warming in interior Alaska is already causing some northern peatlands to dry out, while other northern areas are becoming wetter. These changes could have a major effect on the carbon balance of peatlands, including the potential for the release of CO2 and CH4, which are important greenhouse gases.

• Impact of Global Warming –To determine how climate warming is likely to affect the release of CO2 and CH4 from Arctic peatlands, a multi-discipline and -site temperature and water experiment will be implemented in Alaska’s high-latitude ecosystems to change soil temperatures, and both increase and decrease the water table depth.
• Asik Long-Term Study Site – Ongoing since 1990, research at the Asik watershed, Noatak National Preserve, northwest Alaska, will continue, focusing on quantifying linkages between the topographic (e.g., taiga and tundra areas) declines in snowpack moisture and duration, changes in soil temperature and moisture, release of soil trace gases (CO2, CH4, nitrous oxide), and increased export to the aquatic ecosystem of dissolved inorganic nitrogen, DOC, and dissolved organic nitrogen. In FY 2009, a research emphasis will be on linking observations, process studies, and modeling studies from individual watersheds to regional and synoptic scales, and to continue downscaling models to scales appropriate for land management concerns.
• Improving High-Latitude Carbon Modeling – Existing models will continue to be used to synthesize and integrate understanding of 20th-century carbon dynamics for high-latitude regions (north of 45°N) across terrestrial, freshwater, and oceanic ecosystems. In FY 2009, these modeling exercises will be advanced with observational and experimental data to improve further the ability to (1) consider the response of carbon currently frozen in peatlands or permafrost soils, and (2) predict how fire activity and severity will affect carbon storage in northern ecosystems, and in particular the Yukon River Basin.

These activities will address Goals 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 and Questions 7.1, 7.3, 7.4, and 7.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

North American Carbon Program (NACP). New and reprogrammed investments will be made in observation networks, data management and synthesis, and integrated modeling studies that contribute to NACP goals and objectivities.

• Terrestrial Carbon Modeling – Changes in the carbon cycle can lead to changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration and thus feed back and force changes in climate and the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. Describing, attributing causes, and predicting future responses requires a process model; an Integrated Terrestrial Carbon Model (ITCM) will be optimally constrained in structure and function by historical and contemporary observations from AmeriFlux and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) data to meet this challenge. Regional-scale ITCM simulations will refine CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2 sink estimates by resolving geographic fluxes at a finer temporal resolution. Data assimilation for the NACP Mid-Continent Intensive campaign is underway, and regional-scale simulations for the recent historical period will be analyzed to determine causes of seasonal and interannual variations in carbon source and sink strength.

This activity will address Goals 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 and Questions 7.1, 7.3, 7.4, 7.5, and 7.6 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Ocean Carbon and Climate Change (OCCC). New and reprogrammed investments will be made in ocean and coastal carbon observations, synthesis, and modeling studies to support OCCC programs, analyze ocean satellite data, and assess ocean and coastal carbon sinks and sources.

• Ocean Carbon Observations – During FY 2009, NSF’s Carbon and Water in the Earth System projects—covering regimes spanning the globe, including ocean, coastal, lake, forest, and tundra ecosystems—will expire, while a few ocean and coastal programs will continue beyond FY 2009. New ocean carbon programs will be announced, with submission target dates in FY 2008 and FY 2009, through NSF’s Division of Ocean Sciences, NASA’s Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Science, and NOAA’s Global Carbon Cycling Program. These programs will be supported with reprogrammed investments into a wide range of ocean topics covering carbon cycling, including ocean acidification, terrestrial and coastal carbon exchange, ocean carbon uptake and storage, and related biogeochemical cycles.
• Large-Scale Coastal Surveys – Studies are currently underway in the coastal regions of North America to study the incursion and transport of anthropogenic CO2 and other tracers in coastal ocean waters. This is the first comprehensive effort to measure partial pressures of CO2 and related chemical and hydrographic measurements, including DIC, alkalinity, oxygen, nutrients, and CTD (conductivity, temperature, depth), over the entire coastal zone. The survey will establish a baseline describing the geographic distribution of carbon system parameters and develop a set of hydrographic transects with full water column measurements to be revisited over time for studies of interannual changes in physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of the coastal ocean.
• Ocean Carbon Modeling –Two key processes are being targeted for improvements in ocean carbon modeling. The first is the role of the Southern Ocean in climate forcing. The research aims to quantify its rates of water mass transfer associated with different circulations, to understand why water mass transformations differ greatly between models, and to analyze the relative contributions to numerical simulation uncertainties from physical and biogeochemical model components. The second is the capacity of the ocean to sequester carbon. The research addresses the nutrient limitation of CO2 fertilization in the tropical oceans, which are among the regions with the greatest sources of uncertainty in the carbon cycle over the next half century.

These activities will address Goals 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 and Questions 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, and 7.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Global Carbon Analysis. The carbon cycle is an integrated global system, and a complete understanding of changes in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations requires a global analysis of carbon sources and sinks and their dynamics at relevant spatial and temporal scales.

• Global Carbon Cycle Modeling and Analysis – New research investments for FY 2009 will focus on developing new or improved carbon models that are more comprehensive in treating significant processes and drivers, including those involving or stemming from human activities. These advanced carbon models will address time scales of decades to centuries and integrate across spatial scales up to the global scale. One important focus for improving and extending the treatment of fundamental processes in carbon cycle models is to advance the coupling of global carbon and climate models allowing analyses of interactions and feedbacks within the coupled carbon and climate systems. New research will seek also to extend carbon data assimilation or data fusion schemes by incorporating models of major carbon cycle components with substantially improved detail, realism, and accuracy in the representation of key processes that determine magnitudes and distributions of sources and sinks for carbon and carbon cycle dynamics affecting CO2 or CH4 concentrations. New research will be conducted to prepare atmospheric transport and inversion models and data assimilation and data fusion schemes to utilize measurements of atmospheric column CO2 from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory.

These activities will address Goals 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 and Questions 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, and 7.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Carbon Management and Decision Support. Initial projects are nearing completion and others are underway that will allow government agencies, industry associations, and private landowners to use carbon management information derived from scientific observations, ecosystem models, and on-line tools (products of carbon cycle science research) for resource management and policy decisions affecting both the near and long term. These projects are have particular importance for forest management and agricultural practices.

• Agriculture Systems and Emissions of Greenhouse Gases – A decision-support system for controlling greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural cropping systems will be completed and tested using greenhouse gas emission data from the nationwide Greenhouse Gas Reduction through Agricultural Carbon Enhancement network (GRACEnet). A database of greenhouse gas emissions from crop, pasture, and rangeland systems in the United States will be made publicly available. Remote-sensing technologies for mapping crop residue cover and crop management practices that affect soil conservation and soil carbon will be refined and tested.
• Monitoring Soil Resources in Agricultural Lands – Increasing pressure on soil resources in combination with the need to understand how these resources are responding to changing climate has led to the development of a national soil-monitoring network. The monitoring network is currently evaluating soil carbon stock trends in the upper Midwest using a combination of soil sampling, satellite remote-sensing data, and modeling. The results will inform policymakers about carbon sources and sinks in agricultural regions, as well as form a basis for projections of greenhouse gas mitigation potential through carbon management practices. The monitoring network is being established with the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Resources Inventory, which has provided long-term monitoring of landuse and management activity since the early 1980s. The network will provide invaluable information for evaluating the influence of climate forcing and management activity on soil resources, and will ensure long-term sustainability of agricultural production for society.

These activities will address Goals 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 and Questions 7.1, 7.4, 7.5, and 7.6 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

International Partnerships. Partnerships between scientists and governments to work on the coordination, synthesis, and interpretation of carbon data sets from around the world are essential for full global-scale syntheses, integrations, and future analysis.

• North American Partners – Under the framework of the U.S. Climate Change Bilaterals made from 2001 to 2003 with multiple industrialized and developing countries, government officials from Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group (CCIWG) recently agreed on a Statement of Common Interests and Intent to Work Together on Carbon Cycle Research in North America and endorsed a joint cooperative research effort to assess the North American carbon budget. In 2007, the three countries established the Joint North American Carbon Program and formed a Joint NACP Science Steering Group and Joint Government Coordination Team to lead and facilitate the common activities of the joint cooperative.
• Northern Hemisphere Partners –To extend North American partnership efforts of the CCIWG beyond North America to the Northern Hemisphere (Europe and Asia), U.S. scientists broadened interests and cooperation with carbon science activities abroad. In 2007, the interagency working group initiated discussions with European Union (EU) officials under the framework of the U.S. Bilaterals and then in principle supported the early activities of European scientists leading the EU CarboEurope and CarboOcean programs on a proposed EU initiative to coordinate (network) data management activities on global carbon observations. The European Union and EU scientists aim to link European carbon observation research to similar existing programs in other countries as a contribution to the intergovernmental ad hoc Group on Earth Observations (GEO).
• Global Partners –The CCIWG initiated liaison proceedings with international nongovernmental organizations of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP). In 2006, the interagency working group established formal terms of reference with the ESSP Global Carbon Project (GCP), the GCP International Project Office, and the GCP Scientific Steering Committee (SSC). In 2007, the GCP SSC embraced the U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Program Office as their Affiliate Project Office in North America. The international link with the ESSP GCP is expected to yield stronger national program interactions, regional and global syntheses, and relevant deliverables on the global carbon budgets.

  These activities will address Goals 2, 3, and 4 and Questions 7.4 and 7.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.