Observing and Monitoring the Climate System
Near-Term (Fiscal Year 2008)Plans

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

Overview

Recent Accomplishments

Near-Term Plans

CCSP / USGCRP Observations and Monitoring Working Group Members

For long term plans, see Observing and Monitoring the Climate System chapter of the Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program (2003) posted on CCSP web site.

Past Accomplishments:

Recent

Fiscal Year 2006

Fiscal Years 2004-2005

Climate Change Science Program.  FY 2008 Scientific Research Budget by USGCRP Research Element

Global Climate and Ocean Observing Systems.

FY 2008 priorities for advancement of the atmospheric and ocean observing components of GCOS include: (1) reducing the uncertainty in the carbon inventory of the global ocean, sea-level change, and sea surface temperature; (2) continuing support for existing in situ atmospheric networks in developing nations; and (3) planning for surface and upper air GCOS reference observations consistent with CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Report 1.1. As such, the global ocean observing system will make incremental advances, building out to 59% completion. In addition to the Argo array reaching global coverage, the TAO array in the Pacific will begin to be refreshed with redesigned mooring technologies, and the TAO tropical system will be expanded further in the Indian Ocean. Three new ocean reference stations will be added to the system, for improved forecasts and modeling validation, assessments of climate impacts on ecosystems, and monitoring for possible rapid climate change. The tide gauge network will continue to be upgraded for real-time reporting, also contributing to the international tsunami warning system. Continued support will be given to the activities, database development, and data delivery systems of the international Global Sea-Level Observing System. The drifting arrays will be augmented with salinity sensors to better capture sea surface salinity and to provide calibration for the planned Aquarius satellite mission; and additional carbon dioxide (CO2) sensors will be added to moored arrays and ships to analyze seasonal variability and exchange of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. Work is underway on developing biological sensors as part of Ocean Observing Systems. Finally, planning activities will continue on developing a GCOS Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) to aid in enhancing the quality of upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric water vapor measurements at a subset of present GRUAN.

These activities will address Goals 12.3 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Polar Region Observations: International Polar Year.

Polar climate observations will continue to be a CCSP focus in FY 2008. As a part of IPY, CCSP research will investigate the possible connections between Arctic haze aerosols and the melting of polar ice in the region. The investigation will involve multiple agencies in cooperation with scientists and facilities from several other countries. In addition to a wide variety of surface measurements, in situ and remote-sensing measurements will be made from balloons and aircraft. Satellite observations will include CALIPSO and Cloudsat, using lidar and radar instruments to provide three-dimensional distributions of aerosols and layered clouds. Surface field teams from many nations will be supported by a wealth of satellites contributed for polar research by multiple space agencies.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 and Questions 3.1 and 3.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

In Situ Observations: International Polar Year.

The Arctic Observing Network (AON) is envisioned as a system of atmospheric, land- and ocean-based environmental monitoring capabilities–from ocean buoys to satellites–that will significantly advance observations of Arctic environmental conditions. Developed largely as a research system under the leadership of NSF and NOAA, it is hoped that data from AON will eventually enable the interagency U.S. government initiative–the Study of Environmental Arctic Change–to better understand the wide-ranging series of significant and rapid changes occurring in the Arctic. From April to July 2008, the United States will conduct aircraft flights over the North Slope of Alaska to measure temperature, humidity, total particle number, aerosol size distribution, cloud condensation nuclei concentration, ice nuclei concentration, optical scattering and absorption, vertical velocity, cloud liquid water and ice contents, cloud droplet and crystal size distributions, cloud particle shape, and cloud extinction. These data, coupled with ground-based measurements, will be used to evaluate model simulations of Arctic climate. The new NASA CALIPSO Lidar and CloudSat radar are providing an unprecedented examination of the vertical structure of aerosols and clouds over the entire Earth. These data–when combined with data from the A-train configuration of the Aqua, Aura, and Parasol satellites orbiting in formation–will enable systematic observation of the key climate forcing of aerosol indirect effects, climate sensitivity of cloud feedbacks, and polar climate response of difficult-to-observe polar clouds. The last of these capabilities will also directly support IPY activities. Finally, a U.S. Climate Reference Network system will be deployed at the Russian Arctic site of Tiksi at latitude 71.5°N in order to provide long-term reference measurements of temperature, precipitation, wind, pressure, and surface radiation in support of IPY and beyond.

These activities will address Goals 12.3 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Data Fusion.

As the length of record in the database of global observations increases, increased effort will be placed on assimilating Earth observations into GCMs, to produce an integrated view of the climate system and to better provide this view to users as part of decision-support and resource management systems. The value of the data itself will benefit by increased "data fusion" in which, for example, MODIS observations will be joined with the complementary capabilities of other Earth-observing instruments, to provide much improved, more accurate and rigorous observations of key phenomena such as sea surface temperature, cloud characteristics, and land surface features. Data fusion efforts will include instruments on existing EOS missions such as Terra, Aqua, ICESat, Aura, Landsat, and SORCE, and on recently launched missions such as CloudSat and CALIPSO and, farther in the future, Earth System Science Pathfinder missions and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission. The fusion of space-borne observations with in situ biological and physical observations, such as those gathered through the National Ecological Observatory Network and the Ocean Observing Initiative, is crucial for gaining a better understanding of trends and associated consequences of the variability in the atmosphere-land-ocean system. This activity is closely related to the CCSP Climate Variability and Change research element's priority of improving Earth system analysis capabilities.

These activities will address Goals 13.2 and 13.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Solar Variability: Glory.14

The Glory mission will continue to be developed in FY 2008, and is planned to launch in 2009. It will carry a Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) based on the SORCE TIM design, with the same high-precision phase-sensitive detection capability. Glory will also carry an Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor (APS), which will improve ability to distinguish among aerosol types by measuring the polarization state of reflected sunlight. Both TIM and APS will provide key measurements of the minimum of solar cycle 24. This less-active portion of the 11-year solar cycle is especially crucial in estimating any long-term trends in solar output–a key to understanding the 20th-century context of global change, as the Sun is the single entirely "external" forcing of the climate system that is unaffected by climate change itself.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Global Precipitation Measurement Mission.

Motivated by the successes of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and recognizing the need for a more comprehensive global precipitation measuring program, NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency conceived a new Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission. A fundamental scientific goal of the GPM Mission is to make substantial improvements in global precipitation observations, especially in terms of measurement accuracy, sampling frequency, spatial resolution, and coverage–thus extending TRMM's rainfall time series. To achieve this goal, the mission will consist of a constellation of low-Earth-orbiting satellites carrying various passive and active microwave measuring instruments. The record of precipitation has been extended in recent years to include oceanic as well as land areas using satellite measurements from TRMM. This is an example of a key climate data set to be maintained and extended into the future. The GPM Mission will be used to address important issues central to improving the predictions of climate, weather, and hydrometeorological processes, to stimulate operational forecasting, and to underwrite an effective public outreach and education program, including near-real-time dissemination of televised regional and global rainfall maps.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Aquarius.

Aquarius is a satellite mission to measure global sea surface salinity. The average ocean salinity is about 35 parts per 1,000. The instruments that are part of this satellite mission will measure changes in sea surface salinity over the global oceans to a precision of 0.2 parts per 1,000 (equivalent to about 1/6 of a teaspoon of salt in 1 gallon of water). By measuring global sea surface salinity with good spatial and temporal resolution, Aquarius will answer long-standing questions about how oceans respond to climate change and the water cycle, including changes in freshwater input and output to the ocean associated with precipitation, evaporation, ice melting, and river runoff. Aquarius is a collaboration between NASA and CONAE, the Argentine space agency, with an expected launch date in 2010.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Ocean Surface Topography Mission.

The accurate, climate-quality record of sea surface topography measurements–started in 1992 with TOPEX/POSEIDON and continued in 2001 by the Jason satellite mission–will be extended with the Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM). These missions have provided accurate estimates of regional sea-level change and of global sea-level rise. Ocean topography measurements from these missions have elucidated the role of tides in ocean mixing and maintaining deep ocean circulation. Furthermore, quantitative determination of ocean heat storage from satellite measurements together with measurements from the global array of temperature/salinity profiling floats known as Argo have confirmed climate model predictions of the Earth's energy imbalance that is primarily due to greenhouse gas forcing. The high levels of absolute accuracy and cross calibration make these missions uniquely suited for climate research. OSTM is a collaboration among NASA, NOAA, the French space agency CNES, and the European meteorological agency EUMETSAT, and has a planned 2008 launch.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Orbiting Carbon Observatory.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) is a new mission, expected to launch in 2008, that will provide the first dedicated, space-based measurements of atmospheric CO2 (total column) with the precision, resolution, and coverage needed to characterize carbon sources and sinks on regional scales and to quantify their variability. Analyses of OCO data will regularly produce precise global maps of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere that will enable more reliable projections of future changes in the abundance and distribution of atmospheric CO2 and studies of the effect that these changes may have on the Earth's climate.

These activities will address Goals 12.2 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Continuity of Climate Measurements.15,16

The long-term record of global land cover was begun by Landsat 1 in 1972 and continues through the collection of data from Landsats 5 and 7. Launched in 1984, with a design life of 3 years, Landsat 5 continues to provide near-global coverage through a network of international ground station cooperators. Landsat 7 was launched in 1999, and continues to acquire global observations on a daily basis although in a degraded operating mode. The combined assets of Landsats 5 and 7 permit repeat coverage as frequently as every eight days over ground-receiving station sites. Efforts to create a long-term record of global land cover, started by Landsat in the 1970s, are currently being prepared for the transition to a Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) being planned by NASA and USGS. LDCM is expected to have a 5-year mission life with 10-year expendable provisions. The National Land Imaging Program Plan provides long-term planning for a stable, operational, space-based land imaging capability. See Figure 14 for an example of the usefulness of the Landsat data record.

Planning continues on deploying component sensors from NPOESS. A decision was made in June 2006 to delete many of the climate related instruments from NPOESS. These sensors included those for earth radiation budget, solar irradiance (total and spectrally resolved), high-resolution ozone vertical profile, aerosol optical properties, and sea surface topography. Agencies are currently assessing the impacts of this decision and evaluating options. The NPOESS Preparatory Project is scheduled as a bridge mission between NASA's EOS program in 2009, and NPOESS, now scheduled for its first launch in 2013.

The record of precipitation that has been extended in recent years to include oceanic as well as land areas using measurements from TRMM is another example of a key climate data set that needs to be considered as priorities are set for the future. These examples of key climate variables are elements of the comprehensive observing system to monitor changes in the cycles of carbon, energy, water, and related biogeochemical processes that drive Earth's climate.

These activities will address Goals 12.3 and 12.6 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Figure 14: Landsat and Saudi Arabian Irrigation. Landsat images, from 1986 and 2004, reveal the effects of center-pivot irrigation in a desert region in Saudi Arabia known as Wadi As-Sirhan. In the satellite images, these irrigated fields appear as green dots. This region was once so barren that it could barely support the towns Al'Isawiyah and Tubarjal shown in the upper left of each image. Following the introduction of center-pivot irrigation, the barren desert was gradually transformed into a greener, food-producing landscape. The irrigation system draws water from an ancient underground aquifer. Credit: USGS / EROS Data Center.

Integrated Ocean Observing System.17

The Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) is the U.S. coastal-observing component of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and is envisioned as a coordinated national and international network of observations, data management, and analyses that systematically acquires and disseminates data and information on past, present, and future states of the oceans. A coordinated IOOS effort is being established by NOAA via a national IOOS Program Office co-located with the <Ocean.US> consortium of offices consisting of NASA, NSF, NOAA, and the Navy. The IOOS observing subsystem employs both remote and in situ sensing. Remote sensing includes satellite-, aircraft-, and land-based sensors, power sources, and transmitters. In situ sensing includes platforms (ships, buoys, gliders, etc.), in situ sensors, power sources, sampling devices, laboratory-based measurements, and transmitters.

These activities will address Goals 12.1, 12.3, and 12.6 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

References

2) Soden, B.J. and I.M. Held, 2006: An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Journal of Climate, 19, 3354-3360.

3) Chelton, D.B., M.G. Schlax, M.H. Freilich, and R.F. Milliff, 2004: Satellite measurements reveal persistent small-scale features in ocean winds. Science, 303, 978-983.

4) Nghiem, S.V., K. Steffen, G. Neumann, and R. Huff, 2005: Mapping of ice layer extent and snow accumulation in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, F02017, doi:10.1029/2004JF000234.

5) Parkinson, C.L. and D.J. Cavalieri, 2007: Arctic sea ice extents, areas, and trends, 1979-2006. Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans (accepted).

6) See icesat.gsfc.nasa.gov.

7) See lasp.colorado.edu/sorce.

8) See cosmic.ucar.edu/about.html.

9) Swenson, S.C. and P.C.D. Milly, 2006: Climate model biases in seasonality of continental water storage revealed by satellite gravimetry. Water Resources Research, 42, W03201, doi:10.1029/2005WR004628.

10) See www.arm.gov/sites/amf.stm.

11) Xie, S., S.A. Klein, M. Zhang, J.J. Yio, R.T. Cederwall, and R. McCoy, 2006: Developing large-scale forcing data for single-column models and cloud-resolving models from the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D19104, doi:10.1029/2005JD006950.

12) A list of ongoing activities under this program is available at web.

13) See globalchange.nasa.gov or gcmd.nasa.gov.

14) See glory.giss.nasa.gov.

15) Hansen, J., L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, J. Wiollis, A. Del Genio, D. Koch, A. Lacis, K. Lo, S. Menon, T. Novakov, J. Perlwitz, G. Russell, G.A. Schmidt, and N. Tausnev, 2005: Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science, 308, 1431-1435.

16) NSTC, 2007: A Plan for a U. S. National Land Imaging Program. Future of Land Imaging Interagency Working Group, Washington, DC, 84 pp. Available at website.

17) See www.ocean.us