Updated 9 December 2005
|
Images from Our Changing Planet FY 2006 |
Integrated Assessment Models
The schematic illustrates the framework and components of a typical integrated assessment model. This particular model was developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. An economic model (often a general equilibrium model) provides emission scenarios, which are used as inputs to atmospheric chemistry and climate models. Outputs from the atmospheric models are used as inputs to models that evaluate the impact of potential future climate change on agricultural, ecosystem, and other sectors. For example, in the schematic the climate model outputs drive a terrestrial ecosystems model projecting land vegetation changes, land CO2 fluxes, and carbon storage, which feed back to the coupled chemistry/climate and natural emissions models. There are a variety of feedbacks between the component models. In view of the large number of analytical elements in an integrated assessment model, each with its own uncertainties, the outcomes of these models must be carefully evaluated for their overall uncertainties.
