Seasonal Forecasts

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2005.  Report (dtd 31 May 2005) by William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach. (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook. Document (dtd 16 May 2005) from Climate Prediction Center. See also NOAA Issues 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Seaon Outlook, press release (dtd 16 May 2005) from NOAA. (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and US Landfall Strike Probability For 2005. “We foresee an above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2005. Also, an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is anticipated.” Forecast (dtd 1 April 2005) from William M. Gray and colleagues (Colorado State University). (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Forecast of Atlantic Hurricane Activity for September and October 2004 And Seasonal Update Through August. Report by William Gray et al. (dtd 3 Sept 2004).   (Link verified 21 July 2008)

"Nasty" Hurricane Season Seen for U.S. East and Gulf Coasts.  Article (dtd 8June 2004) from National Geographic.(Link verified 21 July 2008)

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity.  "The recent upturn in Atlantic basin hurricane activity which began in 1995 is expected to continue in 2004. We anticipate an above-average number of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones and an above-average probability of U.S. hurricane landfall."  Report (dtd 28 May 2004) written by William M. Gray et al and published by Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University.  (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Above-Normal 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted.  Press release (dtd 17 May 2004) from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2004.    Report (dtd 2 April 2004) by William M. Gray and Philip Klotzbach. (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and US Landfall Strike Probability for 2004.  Report (dtd 5 Dec 2003) by William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach (Department of Atmospheric Science and Colorado State University). (Link verified 21 July 2008)

NOAA Reports Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Press release (dtd 1 Dec 2003) from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (Link verified 21 July 2008)

2003 Hurricane season: USWRP [U.S. Weather Research Program] research led to more accurate track forecasts.  Press release (dtd 24 Nov 2003) from University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Summary of 2003 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and Verification of Author's Seasonal and Monthly Forecasts.  Report (dtd 21 Nov 2003) by William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach (Department of Atmospheric Science and Colorado State University). (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Forecast of Atlantic Hurricane Activity of Atlantic Hurricane Activity for October 2003.  Report (dtd 2 Oct 2003) by William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach. (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Forecast of Atlantic Hurricane Activity for September and October 2003 and Seasonal Update Through August.  Report by William Gray et al. (3 Sept 2003). "We foresee slightly above-average conditions for September and October."  (Link verified 21 July 2008)

2003 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Update.  Document (dtd 7 Aug 2003) from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.  See also NOAA Forecasters Reiterate Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season,  press release (dtd 7 August 2003) from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.  (Link verified 21 July 2008) )

Updated Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2003.  Report (dtd 30 May 2003) from William M. Gray, Philip J. Klotzbach, and Christopher W. Landsea; and published by the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University.(Link verified 21 July 2008)

NOAA Forecasters Say Six to Nine Hurricanes Could Threaten in 2003.   Top hurricane experts from NOAA today said the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season will likely have above normal levels of activity. The outlook calls for the potential of 11 to 15 tropical storms, with six to nine hurricanes, and two to four classified as major hurricanes.(Link verified 21 July 2008)

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2003.  Report (dtd 4 April 2003) from William M. Gray, Philip J. Klotzbach, and Christopher W. Landsea; and published by the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University. (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity for Sepetember 2002 and Seasonal Update.  Report (dtd 1 Sep 2002) from Members of Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Team.   (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Updated Forecast Of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity And U.S. Landfall Strike Probabilities For 2002.  Report (dtd 7 Aug 2002) from William M. Gray, Christopher W. Landsea, and Philip Klotzbach. (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Updated Forecast Of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and US Landfall Strike Probabilities for 2002.  Report (dtd 31 May 2002) from William Gray et al.   (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Updated Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and US Landfall Strike Probabilities for 2002.  Forecast (dtd 5 April 2002) from William Gray et al.  "A continued upturn of the recent six (1995-96-98-99-00-01) busy hurricane seasons is expected.
Above average probability of US landfall is forecast." (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Research Season a 'Success' for NOAA Hurricane Scientists, Colleagues.  Press release (dtd 4 Dec 2001) from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (link posted 18 December 2001)

2001 Atlantic Hurricane Season Continues Trend For Heightened Storm Activity.  Press release (dtd 29 Nov 2001) from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Summary of 2001 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and Verification of Authors' Seasonal Activity Forecast. "A successful forecast of an active hurricane season, but the 2nd consecutive year without US hurricane landfall."   Report (dtd 20 Nov 2001) from William Gray et al. (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Scientists: Future Atlantic Hurricane Picture Is Highly Complex.  Press release (dtd 20 Sep 2001) from NASA's Earth Observatory. (link posted 29 October 2001)

NASA Technology Eyes Better Hurricane Forecasts.  Press release (dtd 4 October 2001)from Goddard Space Flight Center. (Link verified 21 July 2008)

NOAA Ups Hurricane Forecast a Notch as Peak Season Begins.  Press release (dtd 9 Aug 2001) from NOAA. (Link verified 21 July 2008)

NOAA Scientists Say Active Hurricane Era Will Continue.  Press release (dated 19 July 2001) from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  See also Major Hurricanes Predicted to Increase in Years Ahead.  Article (dated 20 July 2001) from National Geographic. (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project.  See:

• Updated Early August Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and US Landfall Strike Probabilities for 2001. Report (dtd 7 August 2001) from William M. Gray (Colorado State University) et al.

• Summary of 2000 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and Verification of Author's Seasonal Activity Forecast.  "A Successful Forecast of an Active Hurricane Season - But (Fortunately) Below Average Cyclone Landfall and Destruction."  Report (dtd 21 Nov 2000) from William M. Gray et al, posted by the Colorado State University (Fort Collins, CO).

• Hurricanes  from National Public Radio's All Things Considered, August 9, 1999,.  "Linda speaks with William Gray of Colorado State University, one of the country's major hurricane forecasters, about the beginning of this year's hurricane season. Most hurricanes occur from mid-August to late November." (4:00)

Hurricane Forecasters Expect Normal Atlantic storm Activity in 2001.  Story (dtd 21 May 2001) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (Link verified 21 July 2008)

Predicting Hurricanes.  From National Public Radio (NPR),  Morning Edition, November 30, 1998. "NPR's Cheryl Devall reports that the end of this Atlantic hurricane season is going down as one of the most active in recent years. Forecasters found this hurricane season particularly difficult in predicting the severity of some storms. While officials at the National Hurricane Center will get a break now that the season is over, they will continue to work at improving the methods of predicting hurricanes' potential harm." (3:37) (Link verified 21 July 2008)