Regional Workshops:

New England, September 1997

Mid-Atlantic, September 1997

Central Appalachians, Spring 1998

Metropolitan East Coast, Spring 1998

Southeast, July 1997

What is the scope of this region? What are the primary characteristics of the geography and regional economy? The region includes the East Coast, from New England, including upstate New York, to the Mid-Atlantic and the inland regions of the Southeast. Much of the Eastern U.S. is heavily urbanized and populated along the coasts, although much of the inland areas from New England, south through the Appalachian mountain range remains forested. The largest regional industries in New England and upstate New York include energy, manufacturing, agriculture and tourism. Appalachia is a major site of coal extraction. The interior Southeast provides vegetables and fruits (oranges and other fruit), fish, shellfish, and wood products. In addition, there are many industrial and commercial activities.

What are current stresses on this region? Some common concerns in this region include: extensive urbanization and development; air pollution in urban and rural areas; contamination of streams and rivers associated with mining and from waste; and contamination of coastal waters, affecting fisheries and creating health risks for recreational users.

The Southeast is one of the fastest growing regions of the US, with population increases over the past 6 years being about one and one-half times the national average. The region is strongly affected by climate variability in the tropics and shows a strong sensitivity to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) fluctuations that results in significant interannual and seasonal climate variations. The Southeast has also undergone some of the most significant land use changes in the country with much of its cropland converted to developed land (e.g., urban and residential) since the beginning of this century. The Southeast also experiences some of the highest levels of annual precipitation (with mean annual amounts greater than 64 inches in some areas). The combination of population growth, land use change, and maximum annual precipitation in the Southeast has resulted in the highest average annual soil erosion rate in the US (i.e., 8 or more tons/acre/year in many areas). These are all stresses that must be considered in conjunction with future climate change.

The Mid-Atlantic is stressed by major development and changes in land use and also experiences significant variations in water availability due to its limited storage capacities. The Appalachians have problems with acid deposition, climate variability and biotic factors (deer, gypsy moth). New England has had problems with poor air quality resulting from long-distance transport of air pollution and acidic precipitation from outside the region, a decline in fisheries and problems with toxic and biological pollution in the coastal waters, including an unusual recent outbreak of dense algae in the Cape Cod region.

In the metropolitan East Coast region, current stresses include economic recovery from the recession of the early 1990s, tremendous demographic heterogeneity, changes in land use patterns, including urban sprawl. Many metropolitan areas must import a large portion of resources, leaving them with significant amounts of waste for export. Related to these are specific problems such as air and water pollution, traffic congestion, water supply, flooding and coastal erosion, governance issues over jurisdiction among local, state, and federal authorities, and imbalances in energy supply and demand.

How might climate change and variability exacerbate or ameliorate these stresses? The Southeast is becoming increasingly vulnerable to extreme events including hurricanes, floods, drought, ice storms, heat waves, and tornadoes because of rapid population growth and development in vulnerable coastal and river floodplain locations. Also in the Southeast, the demand for water is beginning to exceed the available water supply, and competition for water uses is beginning to intensify. Climate variability and change exacerbate this competition for water. Forest production will be impacted by both shifts in temperature as well as precipitation, increasing the difficulty of forest management. There may be marked shifts in forest species composition.

In the Mid-Atlantic, agriculture, forestry and fisheries are all sensitive to climate change, although there is potential for both positive and negative consequences. These activities also account for a relatively small portion of regional GDP. Ecosystems could be affected through changes in species composition, loss of migration corridors and changes ecosystem niches. Multiple health problems could potentially be exacerbated, including local air pollution, cholera, and other harmful algal blooms. In New England changes in late winter-early spring precipitation patterns could result in diminished frequency of ice jams and flooding. Also, climate change impacts will exacerbate current environmental stresses for all sectors with key issues including weather extremes, air quality, water quality, biodiversity, land cover/land use change, and fisheries.

In the Metropolitan East Coast, key issues include demographics and land use, health and infrastructure. Most of the detailed stresses will be exacerbated by projected climate changes or increases in variability. For example, more episodic precipitation will add stress to both availability and quality of water throughout the region.

What are the most important information needs that have been identified? Information about climate change and variability is not widely understood by regional stakeholders. Additional information about the magnitude of effects, the timing, and the potential costs of climate change are needed. In the agricultural sector, we need to develop and evaluate new technological capabilities that link climate information, remotely sensed data, and biophysical modeling to user-specified applications including precision farming. The impact of climate variability and change on heat stress and extreme climate events as well as on potential spread of water-borne and vector-borne diseases will require systematic assessment.

To improve the natural resources sector's ability to cope with changing climate, they need better climate and atmospheric deposition predictions for the region, and forest and wetland models focused on regional conditions and species. Further, identifying any thresholds for climate change impacts on species, communities, and habitats, and assigning dollar values to impacts on natural resources are also critical. Because the metropolitan East Coast region is heavily engineered, the right kinds of information can play an important role in mitigating climate changes and variability. For example, quantifying components of the urban system, such as material flows through the region, current and project land usage patterns, current and projected demographics etc. will be helpful in understanding the impacts of climate variability and change, and developing strategies to cope with such climate change.

What are possible coping strategies that have been identified? The first strategy is to pursue options that can be taken now to address recognized problems (e.g., eliminating subsidies for rebuilding in flood-prone areas, developing urban heat warning systems, encouraging flexible water management across regional or local districts). In addition, there is a need to develop stronger partnerships among federal and academic researchers, regional, state, and local stakeholders, and the private sector to identify specific stakeholder issues and to adopt and incorporate advanced science results, technology, and data products into everyday operations and planning at the local and regional levels.