Co-Conveners:

John Aber, University of New Hampshire

Joanne Denworth, Pennsylvania Environmental Council

Rapporteur:

Baruch Fischhoff, Carnegie Mellon University

Barbara Miller, Rankin International, Inc.

Archivists:

Wanda Haxton, Environmental Protection Agency

Michael Sale, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

The Eastern Breakout Group focused on the geographic area associated with five regional workshops: New England, Mid-Atlantic, Metropolitan East Coast, Appalachians, and Southeast. This synthesis describes the priority issues and climate-related questions that were identified by breakout group participants, coping strategies for dealing with these issues, and guidance on structuring parts of the national assessment that will follow.

Regional Priority Issues

The Eastern U.S. is particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change due to the following issues:

• Existing cumulative stresses. Society and environmental systems in the Eastern US are subject to a wide range of stresses and constraints, the most important of which are: population pressures; combined effects of pollution, urbanization and an aging/inadequate infrastructure; water and energy supply limits; changes in governance and complex institutions; and land use changes. The potential impacts of climate must be examined in context of these other stresses, because climate impacts will occur in addition to, not instead of these other stresses.
• Unique and sensitive ecosystems. The Eastern US contains several important ecosystems, such as: extensive and biologically diverse forests (e.g., Appalachians); wetlands, swamps, and marshes (e.g., Everglades and Ockafanofee Swamp); and large, productive bays and deltas (e.g., Chesapeake Bay). These natural systems, which are already under stress from development, population, and pollution stresses, are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate and climate variability.
• Sensitivity to heat stress and other temperature-related health problems. In the Southeast, where temperatures are already high during the summer, increased heat stress, air pollution problems in large urban areas, and the spread of tropical diseases are matters of particular concern. In the Northeast, human populations and infrastructure (e.g., public and private buildings with inadequate ventilation or no/insufficient air conditioning) are not well adapted to high summer temperatures and the potential for increased incidences of heat stress are an issue. Additionally, increased summer temperatures could exacerbate air pollution and related ailments in the heavily populated Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions. Warmer winter temperatures, however, could benefit human health problems associated with cold weather.

On a sectoral basis, the following stresses, gaps in understanding, and vulnerabilities were identified in breakout sessions:

Water Resources

• The East has relatively high precipitation, with important intraregional differences in the dominance of snowmelt versus rainfall hydrology; changes in the form and timing of precipitation is critical to impact prediction.
• Municipal and industrial water supplies in the East rely more heavily on surface water than other parts of the country.
• Water supplies are becoming inadequate in the East due to increasing demand and competition among multiple users (e.g., navigation, flood control, waste assimilation, and ecosystem protection).
• The region is vulnerable to both floods and droughts, because it has relatively low reservoir storage capacity.
• Aging infrastructure in water supply and sewer systems increases vulnerability to climate change.
• Stormwater runoff from urban areas produces nonpoint source pollution, which may be aggravated by more extreme events.
• Saltwater intrusion to coastal aquifers is a growing problem that may be aggravated by the combination of climate change and land use change.
• Water law and regulatory institutions in the East do not have adequate capability for flexible water management.

Forests and Wildlife

• Unique forest types and associated wildlife may be stranded and unable to adapt under climate change, especially along "spine of Appalachians".
• Cumulative effects and interactions among pollution and climate (e.g., nitrogen/sulfur deposition, tropospheric ozone versus temperature, water-budget, and CO₂) are poorly understood but will be essential in impact prediction.
• Climate effects on pests and non-native species should be better understood (e.g., how will migration of tropical species northward be affected?).
• Wildlife populations depend on forest ecosystems and therefore will be sensitive to climate change and other factors that affect forests.
• Trends in wildlife populations must be understood, as they represent disease vectors, nuisances, and/or endangered resources; people are willing to pay to preserve wildlife resources.

Agriculture/Fisheries

• Relatively high capital costs in animal husbandry adversely affect adaptability.
• Agricultural and urban land uses are mutually dependent but compete for limited resources.
• The region has unique specialty crops (e.g., apples and maple syrup) that may be sensitive.
• Agricultural runoff pollutes surface and groundwater.

Ecosystem Services

• Regional ecosystems in the East are unique with respect to barrier beaches; swamps and extensive natural wetlands; old forests that may not be sustainable under current uses; high values placed on natural systems based on relative scarcity and recognition of the services and quality of life they provide; existing stresses from land use changes and human population growth; high diversity of agricultural systems.
• Wetlands are especially sensitive to changes in the hydrologic cycle, and their assimilative capacity may be exceeded or diminished under altered climate.
• Unmanaged ecosystems are probably the most vulnerable to climate change.
• Ecosystem services are poorly understood; need more research on functions and valuation.
• Extensive coastal areas in the East are vulnerable to sea level rise and related impacts, such as storm surges, coastal erosion and inundation.

Human Health and Demographics

• Demographic trends are leading to divergent populations of low-income, minority groups, mostly in urban areas, that are more sensitive to climate effects.
• Mobile and disproportionately influential upper-class groups less directly affected by climate.
• Differential accessibility to health infrastructure aggravates climate sensitivity of populations.
• Current sources of water-borne diseases (i.e., giardia, cryptosporidium, phistaria, etc.) are not well understood, but they may be affected by climate.
• Weather patterns are correlated with ozone pollution events; therefore, climate change may aggravate air pollution problems.
• Urban populations are sensitive to heat stress, but adaptability and mitigation options are not well understood.
• Ultraviolet radiation be affected by climate change, with subsequent human health and pollution interactions.

Tourism/Recreation

• Recreation in the East is highly sensitive to weather patterns (e.g., skiing, air quality and visibility, beach use, sport fishing, outdoor activity, retirement).
• Impacts to recreation cause cascading economic impacts (e.g., costs to seafood, trade, investment; Chesapeake oysters, crabs, hotels, support services).

Industry and Commerce

• Vulnerable industries in the East include the coal, energy, insurance and real estate industries.
• Industries involved in energy efficiency and clean technology would likely benefit from climate change.

Coping Strategies

Many approaches were identified to cope with climate variability and change, including:

Water Resources

• Increase reservoir storage capacity
• Implement water conservation measures and improve water use efficiency in all sectors
• Encourage appropriate water pricing
• Explore innovative supply arrangements, with more interconnections among supply systems
• Implement land use practices that control phosphorous, nitrogen, and other nonpoint source pollutants, especially in watersheds that are water supplies (e.g., Catskills)
• Implement integrated groundwater management
• Encourage land use practices that increase porosity of ground surfaces (e.g., plant forests)
• Diversify sources of drinking water supplies or increase filtration to eliminate disease
• More and better regulation of drinking water supplies
• Better early warning systems for storm events (sea-level rise?)
• Better management of land use in coastal areas
• Preserve wetlands as recharge areas for groundwater aquifers, especially where saltwater intrusion is a problem

Forests, Wildlife, and Ecosystems

• Plant species north of their current ranges to facilitate migration
• Conduct research and development on artificial means of transplanting species and whole ecosystems to ensure successful adaptation
• Create short rotation biomass farms (10 year rotations have less chance of impacts from fire, pests, etc.) and large public or private reserves/preserves
• Shift to a younger age structure in the forests
• Reduce air pollution to reduce cumulative effects on vegetation
• Conduct research on creation of new wetlands and the migration patterns of salt marshes in response to sea-level rise

Human Health

• Improve access to and technology for indoor climate control
• Open public spaces in heat waves for those without air conditioning
• Coordinate responses like EPA's Cool Communities Program
• Improve conventional public health mechanisms to stay appraised of threats from increases in vector borne diseases because of warmer weather
• Implement heat stress planning similar to current drought planning, targeting most sensitive areas

Assessment Needs and Recommendations

The participants in the Eastern breakout groups identified the following assessment needs and recommendations for the National Assessment:

Regional Definition

• Do not separate coastal zones from inland areas or mountains/highlands from urban areas; states should not be divided into different regions.
• Use large river basins as regional boundaries where possible, except where important interbasin transfer occurs (e.g., Catskills and New York City).
• Consider the predominance of snowmelt in annual hydrographs in regional definitions.

Scenario Development

• Assessment scenarios are needed and should be a systematic coupling of domains (e.g. climate scenarios)
• Assessment scenarios must account for constraints such as: population pressures, air and water pollution trends, infrastructure conditions, vulnerability to natural hazards, limits to water and energy supplies, changes in governance/institutions, land use change
• Scenarios should identify the distribution, amount, and form of precipitation, as well as the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts and floods.

Approach and Methods

• The assessment should distinguish the response of (natural) systems to climate; and the response of human systems (human health, etc.) to combination of change in climate and other systems.
• Assessment products should evaluate effects that are plausible in the near-term (e.g., within 50 years) and that are relevant to daily lives of general public and special interests therein.
• Information gaps should be identified in the assessment, including areas where scientific understanding is lacking and areas where public education is needed (e.g., vector-born disease).
• Assessment products will be useful to politicians if (and only if?) they are relevant to their constituents (electorate and special interests therein).
• Impact predictions should be described in terms of risks and put in context of current risks (e.g., design parameters of existing water supply systems).
• The assessment should describe the adaptive capacity of existing water resource systems and the possibilities that this adaptive capacity could be exceeded.

Ecosystems impacts should be presented in two steps:

1. influence of current climate variability on ecosystems
2. effects of changes in that variability on ecosystems.

There are also some guidelines about assessments in general:

• Assessment research should address migratory behavior, abilities, and limitations of sensitive terrestrial and aquatic species; differences between managed and unmanaged ecosystem should be identified.
• Assessment should present best information on climatic effects on wildlife (e.g., sensitivity of ground nesting birds to humidity) to identify critical gaps and maximize credibility.
• The assessment should identify the size and distribution of urban populations sensitive to heat stress and climate-related pollution events.
• Economic damages for extreme events should be quantified in the assessment.
• The assessment must address cumulative effects of climate and pollution and account for interregional linkages (e.g., fisheries, mobile human populations, migratory species).
• The assessment must recognize that emission control strategies (a.k.a. "Mitigation") are inseparable from coping strategies in the National Assessment.
• Conservation values of the public may change over time -- this should be accounted for in the assessment.
• Assessments should provide a contact to understand potential climate change impacts relative to other stresses on society and environmental systems
• Assessments should identify the positive, as well as negative, impacts of climatic change