What is the scope of the sector? What issues does it include? The scope of the sector is climate change impact on, and potential adaptation of, energy supply systems (extraction through delivery and waste disposal) and energy using activities (primarily building space conditioning and transportation energy use) in the context of other changes in the energy system and society. Adaptive responses to climate impacts present both challenges to, and opportunities for, promoting sustainability and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. One critical question for the energy sector analysis is how to separate issues of climate change impacts from issues of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation policies, since the latter are likely to have a larger impact in shaping the structure of future energy systems than the former.

What are overlaps and synergies with other sectors? Water-related energy factors such as hydroelectric power, water use for thermal power plant cooling and irrigation of biomass energy farms, and transport of energy by river barges will overlap with issues of hydrology and water resource management in the Water Availability Sector since water resources are managed for multiple uses. Land use will also be an issue for biomass energy production, which may compete with agricultural and other uses of land, overlapping with the Food Availability Sector. The energy sector study will require climatological and hydrological inputs from the Scenario Task Force. Baseline information will also be needed about land use changes, particularly from agriculture, and water demand. There will be synergies with hydrological studies in the Water Availability Sector and with all the Regional Assessments.

What are the key current and expected future (non-climatic) stresses on energy? Electric utility systems are facing business restructuring due to deregulation initiatives that may shift responsibilities for generation, transmission and distribution, shift economic incentives, and possibly shift technologies and fuels used for generation.

There are many current stresses which could be amplified in the future. For example, declining domestic oil reserves and increasing demand will exacerbate energy security and trade balance concerns. Increasing stringency of environmental pollution regulations will increase control costs and/or pressures to shift to cleaner fuels. Potential constraints on greenhouse gas emissions would place further pressures on use of fossil fuels unless de-carbonization techniques are successful. Increasing consumption of oil by transportation, along with associated environmental effects, may result in pressures for alternative transportation solutions. Exploration and production of oil and gas will increasingly involve resources that are more difficult to recover and possibly may occur in areas that are environmentally sensitive and/or more environmentally challenging in which to operate (deep sea drilling, arctic environments). Environmental constraints on hydroelectric generation for conservation, recreation and fisheries management are likely to increase.

How will climate change and variability exacerbate or ameliorate these stressors? What new stresses might be introduced? Climate is likely to have its greatest direct effect on hydroelectric power generation to the extent that the quantity and seasonal timing of precipitation and runoff are altered. In addition, climate change potentially could alter demand for other uses of water resources that can compete with hydropower, thermal power generation and biomass energy production. Climate warming will likely increase summer demand for air conditioning while decreasing winter heating requirements for buildings and net energy consumption. Altered regional climates will affect regional potentials for renewable energy production and need to be understood to foster optimal long-term planning of solar, wind, hydroelectric and biomass energy production. Similarly, climate and water resource availability predictions are needed to plan siting and cooling systems for thermal power generation. Climate change and changes in frequency or severity of severe storms potentially could have effects on oil and gas production and energy transportation systems in either positive or negative ways.

What are the most important information needs? Information about potential energy supply and utilization technologies and future systems is crucial to evaluation of impacts. Quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on electric power systems requires detailed knowledge of the characteristics of future electric systems and demand, as well as detailed predictions of future climate change and climate variability. Evaluation of direct impacts on renewable energy production may require very detailed scenarios of climate and hydrology.

What coping strategies might be available to reduce climatic and other stresses? A large number of coping strategies are potentially available to various components of the energy supply and demand system, including changes in technologies and sources of energy, interregional shifts in location of facilities, improved design of buildings and HVAC systems. However, a comprehensive evaluation of impacts and coping strategies for the U.S. has not been carried out in the context of detailed scenarios of climate change.

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1. "Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential Impacts of Energy Technologies by 2010 and Beyond", prepared by the Interlaboratory Working Group for Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy, 1997.
2. "Federal Energy Research and Development for the Challenges of the 21st Century: Report of the Energy Research and Development Panel" of the President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST)", September 30, 1997.