Revised to Reflect the Discussions at the U.S. Climate Forum

What is the scope of the sector? What issues should be included? The scope of food availability includes food production (agriculture and fisheries) through processing, delivery, and consumption, including issues of socioeconomic importance such as affordability and accessibility of food and financial vulnerability of food producers and food producing regions. It needs to consider climate and carbon dioxide effects on crops and livestock and more complex interactions with pests, changes in soils, and water availability. It also includes how climate may affect agricultural production-environment interactions such as soil erosion, changes in wildlife habitat, livestock waste, and agricultural chemicals as well as environmental concerns that may be affected by changing intensity of rainfall and extreme weather events. It needs to consider economic competitiveness issues and other possible international issues such as the potential for increased likelihood of international transmission of livestock disease vectors.

What are overlaps and synergies with other sectors? Food production associated with agricultural and fisheries activities interact with a number of sectors. Water quantity and quality issues are central to agriculture. Broader environmental concerns include chemical residuals, quality of coastal and freshwater ecosystems, and also interactions with health via pest interactions and food and water borne disease and contaminants. Climate change may create incentives and pressures for different uses of land in different parts of the country, competing with other uses of land. Intensity of agricultural production/land use can affect natural migration rates of species.

What is the baseline information that is needed about food availability, without climate change? Basic information is needed on the extent of different types of crops grown, environmental interactions, economic and social data. Basic information related to food demand and supply as contained in global economic models of the agricultural system is also needed. This includes forecasts from such economic models of the agricultural system under future population, technology and other conditions; e.g.; forecasts of global and U.S. food production under different scenarios concerning world population and income growth. Information is needed on fish stocks and harvesting rates, how and why species migrate, their lifecycle, and conditions that support productive fisheries, demand and supply relationships, future projections of the conditions of fisheries, assumptions and information about management of fisheries, sustainable harvest levels.

What assessments already exist on potential consequences of climate change?

• Adams, R.M., B.A. McCarl, D.J. Dudek, and J.D. Glyer, 1988: Implications of global climate change for western agriculture. Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, 13, pp. 348-356.
• Adams, R.M., et al. 1990. "Global Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture" Nature, May pp.219-224.
• Adams, R.M., R.A. Fleming, C. Chang, B. McCarl, and C. Rosenzweig, 1995: A Reassessment of the Economic Effects of Global Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture, Climate Change, 30, pp. 147-167.
• Darwin, R., M., Tsigas, J. Lewandrowski, and A. Raneses, 1995: World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptation, Report No. AER-709, Economic Research Service, Washington, D.C. 86 pp.
• Easterling, W.E. III, P.R. Crosson, N.J. Rosenberg, M. McKenney, L.A. Katz and K. Lemon, 1993: Agricultural impacts of and responses to climate change in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region. Climatic Change, 24, pp. 23-61.
• Houghton, J.T., L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell (eds.), 1996. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 572 pp. ...
• Mendelsohn, R., W. Nordhaus, and D. Shaw. "The Impact of Climate on Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach." Amer. Econ. Rev. 84 (Sept. 1994): 753-71.
• Reilly, J., W. Baethgen, F.E. Chege, S.C. van de Geijn, Lin Erda, A. Iglesias, G. Kenny, D. Patterson, J. Rogasik, R. Rtter, C. Rosenzweig, W. Sombroek, and J. Westbrook, 1996, Chapter 13. Agriculture In a Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptation, in Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific and Technical Analyses, [Watson, R.T., M.C. Zinyowera, and R.H. Moss, eds.], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 427-467.
• Reilly, J. and N. Hohmann. "Climate Change and Agriculture: The Role of International Trade." Amer. Econ. Rev., 83 (May 1993): 306-12.
• Rosenzweig, C., 1985: Potential CO₂-induced climate effects on North American wheat-producing regions. Climatic Change, 7, pp. 367-389.
• Rosenzweig, C., B. Curry, J.T. Richie, J.W. Jones. T.Y. Chou, R. Goldberg, and A. Iglesias, 1994. The effects of potential climate change on simulated grain crops in the United State. In: Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modeling Study [C. Rosenzweig and A. Iglesias (eds]. Washington, DC USA Environmental Protection Agency, USA chap., pp. 1-24.
• Schimmelpfennig, D., J. Lewandrowski, J. Reilly, M. Tsigas, and I. Parry, 1996: Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: Issues of Long Run Sustainability, Agricultural Economics Report No. 740, Economic Research Service, USDA Washington, D.C. 53 pp.

Who are the key groups who should be involved in this sectoral assessment?

• Federal agencies such as USDA, NOAA, DOI, EPA
• Resources of the Future
• Land Grant Universities
• Farm and rural community groups, such as the Farm Bureau, National cattlemen's Assoc. etc
• Agribusiness firms and associations (here I'm thinking about the food export firms like Cargill, Archer-Daniels-Midland, etc.
• Agricultural input suppliers, such as Monsanto, Dupont or their trade associations.
• Environmental groups with an interest in rural land use issues, such as the National Wildlife Federation, the Nature Conservancy, Ducks Unlimited, etc.
• Industry and trade groups involved in the fishing industry.

What are the key current and expected future (non-climatic) stresses on food availability? Economic pressures to compete in the world economy, financial stresses to meet goals of reducing environmental impacts of agriculture, increasing competition for water with other users, food health/food borne pathogens, meeting food/nutrition demands of a growing population, ensuring healthier diets/adequate food. For fisheries, environmental pressures including nursery habitat destruction stemming from agricultural runoffs and development of estuaries and coastlines overfishing.

How will climate change and variability exacerbate or ameliorate these stressors? What new stresses might be introduced? Given the uncertainty in climate projections, climate change may either exacerbate or ameliorate any of these depending on the specific scenario of climate change and the region. More intense rain could worsen run-off and water quality problems. Warmer temperature will increase demand for water, perhaps while water supplies are reduced. U.S. diets and health probably will not be strongly affected by climate change. In some scenarios U.S. agriculture gains a competitive advantage internationally and in some it loses. Change runoff could affect fisheries if harvests and intensify the need for better management of fisheries.

What are the most important information needs? Understanding and modeling the complex interactions of pests, soils, climate, crops, livestock, and other stresses. Understanding how climate change will affect fisheries--the knowledge base in this regard is very thin. Also, there is a need to understand and forecast the path and magnitude of technological change in the production of and demand for food, as well as in processing storage and transportation of food.

What coping strategies might be available to reduce climatic and other stresses? More research is needed on new crop varieties, while preservation of genetic material can be used to develop new crops. Crop insurance, diversified economic bases of regions dependent on farming, and improved monitoring/forecasts of weather will also increase resilience to cope with future changes. Many farmers are experimenting with improved practices that increase cover on soils to avoid erosion.