Regional Workshops:

Central Great Plains, May 1997

Northern Great Plains, November 1997

Texas and the Southern Great Plains, March 1998

What is the scope of this region? What are the primary characteristics of the geography and regional economy? The scope of this region includes the northern, central and southern Great Plains of the United States including portions of 10 states (Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) and occupying the central third of the continental land mass of the United States. Characteristics of the region include major human transformations of land, population shifts from rural to urban areas, a thriving trade activities, and an increase of high-tech farm enterprises. The major land uses are agriculture and livestock; these are restricted by variability in temperature and precipitation. In addition, water availability is becoming limited because of oversubscription due to multiple demands on this resource.

What are current stresses on this region? Water resources are already scarce in the Great Plains and there are projected to be greater demands among the various users in the future, including for urban demands for drinking water, irrigation of agricultural lands, and wetlands wildlife conservation. There are also special concerns of Native American and tribal lands in this region.

How might climate change and variability exacerbate or ameliorate these stresses? Major concerns involve impacts on conservation (e.g., riparian areas, wetlands, rangelands, forests and dunes) and ranching and farming sectors. Climate change and variability could severely impact the wetland areas of the region, bringing about severe consequences to the migratory and local water fowl and wildlife populations. Warming may also result in greater crop damage due to increased drought stress from higher growing season temperatures. Ranchers may not be able to support the current number of animals on the existing rangelands due to reduced dryland pasture production and lack of water resources for their animals.

Increased runoff in winter and early spring, but reduced flows during summer, will affect this region due to its dependence on snowmelt. In the central Plains, changes in late winter-early spring precipitation patterns could result in diminished frequency of ice jams and flooding.

What are the most important information needs that have been identified? The communication of information is critical to an effective response to the potential impacts of climate change in the Great Plains. As we create a regional process of assessing and responding to climate change, we have identified key questions that need to be addressed in order to understand present information systems better and create effective ones in the future: For whom is what information important? What sources of public and private information are relied upon? What are the current and potential global to national to local linkages in information transfer? What institutions and processes encourage or discourage the transfer of "useful" and "usable" information? It is essential that there is a dialogue between users of information and suppliers of information. Information transfer, therefore, will be effective if there is a two way flow so that both needs and useful information can be communicated effectively. There has been a cut back of on-farm demonstration projects. The farmers and ranchers in our group see this as a serious gap in information transfer. This highlights the importance of understanding the linkages between users and suppliers of information.

Climate change information should be responsibly and widely disseminated. Although the scientific community has discussed climate change and variability for more than a century, the general public lacks basic knowledge of climate change. Understanding the relative positive and negative impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on agriculture, social, and environmental resources at local, regional, and global scales will assist policy decisions.

Currently, extreme climatic variation in conjunction with limitations in long-term weather forecasting severely limit the application of particular management practices. Any increase in this climatic variability would further impact crop, livestock, and economic management, whereas more accurate seasonal weather forecasts would greatly benefit management plans. For longer range planning, inter-annual predictions would assist such activities as allocating multi-year water supplies, managing livestock herd sizes, etc.

What are the most important research needs that have been identified? Research is needed to clarify uncertainties of climate change projections, assess potential coping strategies, and to provide better information to the stakeholder group in the region. In the area of social, political and economic sectors, research is needed to better understand how we can utilize existing structures or to develop new social structures to cope with climate change impacts related to legislation relative to water, environmental protection, and conservation. New ways of defining community goals for resource use among a diverse set of stakeholders are needed in order to better resolve conflicts before they resort to the courts.

The diverse water needs of the region compound the difficulty in managing water use among the various sectors. The research community needs to design better methods to understand and address the competition of water needs among the agricultural sectors, urban and industrial uses, and natural ecosystems. Current understanding of the needs of aquatic systems to survive under current water use patterns and climatic conditions is incomplete.

As climate changes, the prevalence of weeds and pests may increase. Research needs include improving our understanding of what effects the exotic species have on habitats and how climate change will affect their ability to become established in different habitats. Research on effective control of known invasive and disruptive species needs to be accelerated. The impact of climate change on biodiversity and habitat changes needs to be better understood. In agricultural systems the genetic stock is a critical element of future development of the new strains of crop and livestock varieties. An essential element which will enable this genetic engineering is maintaining populations of the crops' ancestral gene pools.

Agricultural and rangeland research has been strong in the area of soil conservation and land management. The agricultural experiments have initiated studies to evaluate the benefits of grass/legume mixtures to incorporate in dryland crop rotation, different cropping systems to improve soil carbon levels and to help reduce trace gas emissions, improved water management, and integrated farming analysis to evaluate changes in farm management and practices encouraging conservation of natural resources. Rangeland research is needed to better understand the relationship of livestock dynamics to rangeland condition. Studies of climate change and CO₂ changes on vegetation and animal dynamics are needed to understand the ecosystem level response to these changes. Research is also needed to develop effective management strategies for coping with climate change including alteration of changes in frequency and intensity of grazing, so that evaluation of sustainable rangeland use can be assessed. Research needs to consider how extant disturbance regimes might change within the context of climate change and land use change scenarios.

What are possible coping strategies that have been identified? Many strategies are already being adopted as ways of coping with the already difficult climate of the Great Plains. However, there are a number of cultural, economic, policy and social factors which inhibit a the more rapid and widespread adoption of more sustainable practices. These strategies favor improvement and maintenance of soil, water, biotic and land resources and can definitely be classified as "no regrets" options.

In order to meet increasing water demands, application of and experimenting with new storage techniques may offset some of the climate change impacts on water availability. In the agricultural sector, a variety of strategies have evolved to deal with drought and conservation of soil resources. Practices such as reduced tillage reduces the loss of carbon and water from our croplands. The use of cover crops or making changes in residue management provide a means for reducing soil loss due to wind and water erosion, improve soil carbon storage, and increase soil moisture availability. The development of precision agricultural practices that integrates the use of specialized crop varieties, fertilizer inputs, and irrigation schedules is a new area of crop management which may provide a technological approach to cope with climate change. The management of crop and livestock diversity can be an effective tool to stabilize agricultural income, reduce pest and weed infestations, and provide a way to improve soil fertility. The expanded use of CRP lands for moderate grazing or haying of the pasture mix would be beneficial for financial stability as well as maintain soil carbon sequestration and soil moisture levels. Areas managed in this way are also beneficial for improved wildlife habitats.

There are a number of options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture (crops and livestock). Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural systems are influenced by the amount and timing of applications of nutrients and the form and technique of application. Cropping practices, including the return of crop residue to the fields, can be important in removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and returning the carbon to the soil in the form of organic matter. Continued research into cropping management and sustainable agricultural practices would improve these management techniques.