Co-Conveners:

Dennis S. Ojima, Colorado State University

Lenora Bohren, Colorado State University

Rapporteur:

Herman Mayeux, US Department of Agriculture

George Seielstad, University of North Dakota

Archivists:

David Cash, Harvard University

Kathy Johnson, Office of Science and Technology Policy

Overview

The evidence for climate change is becoming more compelling, yet most regions of the United States do not have a strategy to deal with the potential impacts. In the Great Plains region, the potential impact of climate changes is anticipated to affect winter snowfall, growing season rainfall amounts and intensities, minimum winter temperatures, and summer time average temperatures. The combined effect of these changes in weather patterns and average seasonal climate will affect numerous sectors critical to the economic, social and ecological welfare of this region.

The primary land use that has transformed the Great Plains grassland has been agriculture. Over 90% of the land is in farms and ranches, and 75% is cultivated. There are five major production systems in the Great Plains: range livestock, crop fallow, groundwater irrigation (aquifer-dependent), river valley irrigation (snowmelt-dependent), and confined livestock feeding. Great Plains agriculture is land-extensive and uses relatively few chemical inputs and labor per unit of land.

Water resources are scarce in the region, and are under great competition among the various users, for instance urban demands for drinking water competes with agriculture and wildlife conservation. Climate warming may severely impact the wetland areas of the region bringing about severe consequences to the migratory and local water fowl and wildlife populations. Climate change may also result in greater crop damages due to increased drought stress resulting from higher growing season temperatures. The loss of soil from these croplands may be enhanced by the lack of plant cover. Ranchers in the region may not be able to support the current number of animals on the existing rangelands due to reduced dryland pasture production and lack water resources for their animals.

Associated with climate change will be a number of indirect effects that will modify the ecological integrity of many of the ecosystems in the region. The increased number of noxious weeds, greater pest outbreaks, increased rate of aquifer use, and loss of wetlands for water fowl may result due to increased temperatures in the region. The economic and aesthetic costs of these changes have not been evaluated within the region. Strategies for mitigating or adapting to these changes have yet to be developed.

The following trends are anticipated to continue in the Great Plains:

• Increased size and reduced number of farms
• Increased importance of technology to achieve those increases
• Increased livestock and mixed cropland-livestock operations
• Continued water competition between agricultural and urban
• Population shifts out of rural areas

In order to better understand the scope of climate change impacts and the potential economic and political implications of these climate impacts, we need to better understand the current range of concerns which affect land use in the region today. The scope of concerns reflect the diverse sectors and environmental factors influencing sustainable use of resources and the viability of the social communities of the region. In addition, it is recognized that the interconnections between the various sectors and land uses of the region could result in the development of coping strategies which would take a more integrated approach to achieve feasible, long-term solutions. It is this more integrated perspective which will lead to long-term solutions dealing with climate variability and the development of a strategy to cope with global change. The Great Plains Panelists and the Break Out Groups of US Climate Forum highlighted seven specific issues related to climate change and variability which are currently major concerns in the region.

The primary concerns are:

• Water
• People, Institutions, and economics
• Soils Resources

Secondary concerns include:

• Vegetation
• Stability of Food Production
• Decreased support for agriculture and land management research.
• Ineffective information transfer and diffusion systems

I. Primary Concerns:

The first three issues (water, people, soils) were of discussed in greater detail and are presented here in more detail. The secondary concerns are also very important, however, the various groups did not have time to elaborate on these topics.

Water Issues. Water has been a critical component of the socio-economic activities contributing to the land transformations taking place in the Great Plains. Thus, the issue of water quality and supply is of particular importance to the inhabitants. As agriculture is the primary economic activity in the Plains, it is not surprising that it is also the main user of water. Eighty percent of the consumptive use of water in the arid west is estimated to be from agriculture, with about 10% or twenty million acres in irrigated cropland. The lack of water availability can exacerbate the soil moisture stress of irrigated and non-irrigated regions of the Great Plains. Soil moisture depletion can greatly reduce yield of range forage and of crops. In addition, many parts of the Great Plains are showing decreasing water supplies for agriculture partly due to higher value uses in urban areas. Nearly all freshwater ecosystems in the Great Plains have been modified by direct or indirect human activities and land uses, including habitat destruction from dams, diversions, channelizations; altered groundwater flow patterns from as a result of pumping; erosion and the alteration of thermal regimes. Point and non-point source pollution have introduced a wide array of organic chemicals, toxic metals, and fertilizers such as nitrogen and phosphorus into the ecosystem. The alteration of vegetation, the introduction of non-native plant and animal species, and the over-harvesting of native species have also negatively impacted the aquatic ecosystem. Considerable pollution results from sedimentation, fertilizer, pesticide and waste runoff. This results in increased salinity, nutrient loading, turbidity, and siltation of streams. Shallow aquifers are also suffering from these pollution problems. Agricultural runoff contributes 2/3 of the river pollution and _ of the lake and reservoir pollution in this country. Drinking water quality is also reduced as a result of pollution, particularly in small towns. This decrease in water quality has affected food production, human consumption and wildlife habitat.

Water shortage is already a problem. Most water is distributed by prior appropriation laws, but costly litigation results from numerous water rights battles. These laws sometimes inhibit efficient use of the water by better management practices. Water supply issues will become increasingly important where competition between urban development and agriculture increases. These changes in water utilization is leading to depletion of the aquifers, a break down of multi-state compacts, inter- and intra-state water transfers, and increasing competition between agriculture and other uses. These changes will be further affected by climate changes in this already highly variable climate region. Thus the concern over water issues, such as allocation and control, is a current and increasingly growing concern.

People and Resources. Change in demographics of the region, especially the "graying" of the population and the migration to urban centers is a real concern of people of this region. There has been a continued shift in the population from primarily rural to increasingly urban. The number of ranchers and farmers is decreasing and half of those remaining are 55 years old or older. The social-economic environment of the Great Plains is characterized by risk and marginality. Since the time of settlement, the variable and dry climate has made it difficult for people to live off the land. Agriculture is still the dominant lifestyle in this region is spite of narrowing profit margins leading to increased farm sizes caused by farm consolidation. With farm consolidation, there are fewer farmers. The east to west gradient of declining moisture has determined the crop production for the area. The variability of this climate has been somewhat overcome with the use of technology, such as fertilizer, irrigation, new crop varieties, etc. Most farmers are grain producers, but increasingly farm cash receipts are coming from livestock operations moving into the area. Sixty percent of the cattle industry is now concentrated in three Great Plains states. They are attracted by the dry climate, which allow feedlot cattle to thrive, and the open space far from population centers that allow for waste disposal.

Several additional problems were identified:

• Shrinking profit margins.
• Farmers are in the midst of a lot of change: changing tillage practices, changes toward livestock feeding; dairying - short of dairy cows in Nebraska; global competition and competing with countries with which we haven't competed previously- e.g., New Zealand; must look at the integration of cropping and livestock practices.
• Non-farm income is becoming more important on farms.
• Livestock is accounting for a larger share of the revenues, even for farmers.
• Intensification of farm management practices have led to greater vulnerability
• Declining community infrastructure
• Greater aggregation and capitalization of farms
• Absentee ownership of farms
• Loss of arable land to development - irreversibility
• Skepticism of climate change and other environmental issues

Soil Resources. Diminishing soil fertility over the last 10-20 years is a great concern. The practice of long fallow periods with tillage has contributed to these losses. The last 60 to 80 years has resulted in a decline of 50% soil nutrients and increased CO₂ release. With current economic conditions, summer fallow wheat is not profitable in the western region of the Great Plains and is only economically viable because of government support. This support, however, will be phased out by 2002 allowing for more options for farmers; lower negative profitability; and the use of better herbicides and other methods.

The land has suffered because of an emphasis on feed grains. Government policy has favored support of feed grains and has not promoted alternate cropping systems which are water and soil conserving. Soils which are less degraded and have higher organic matter content hold more water and nutrients. A potential solution to the loss of soil fertility is high-residue, high-tech farming (e.g., non-tillage systems) which is more water efficient in irrigated and rain-fed systems. Despite the increased demand for feed grains in support of the livestock demands, dry land cropping should be able to meet challenge.

The soil was viewed as a critical resource which maintains the agricultural system of the region. Fertile and carbon rich soils maintain a high level of production of pasture and crops despite the semi-arid nature of the climate. The soil is also a resource which if properly managed will lead to potential mitigation options for long-term storage of carbon and additional benefits to the ranchers and farmers of the region. The people living in the Great Plains view the soil as a resource needing protection and a resource made vulnerable to climate changes given the increased human-induced perturbations that have taken place.

II. Secondary Concerns

Vegetation. The condition of the plant communities in the Great Plains is important to the agricultural and ecological well-being of the region. Livestock and wild fauna depend on the natural vegetation, as well as, the amount and composition of the vegetation is of key concern to ranchers, farmers, and conservationists alike. The competition for various land uses and demographic changes within the region are impacting the decisions of how to manage the plant communities. These interactions are also impacting the number and the rate of spread of invasive species throughout the Great Plains. Changes in the natural vegetation and other environmental factors are changing the biodiversity of the region and affecting pest, disease, and other undesirable species.

Stability of food production. Current production systems are more variable due to changes in market prices and inherent environmental variability. The use of specialized varieties may also contribute to the variability of crop yields when weather patterns in a local area is atypical. Agricultural production is affected by external factors related to market prices, crop production in other regions, and the cost of inputs. Decreased support for research which historically provided comparative advantage to American agriculture.

Ineffective information transfer and diffusion systems. Dissemination of information: As communities are losing population, it is becoming more difficult to disseminate information. The land grant system has been a source of productivity but funding is decreasing. This is happening as assistance to farmers is declining. Getting stakeholders into the process of greenhouse gas inventory, technical assessment, and mitigation strategies as early as possible is essential. However this is a politically sensitive issue and a great deal of education and discussion is needed to get the correct information out.

Given the concerns and trends discussed above, coping strategies need to be explored that can mitigate the effects of climate change. Many of the coping strategies that are needed are based in information transfer and exchange.

III. Coping Strategies

There is much that can be done to be prepared for the pending effects of climate change in the Great Plains. Many of these strategies are already in place. What is needed is information that can be used to modify or expand these strategies in order to help plan for the additional stresses which climate change may impose. Some suggested coping strategies are as follows:

1. Planning. People can better cope if they have response plans or mitigation plans such as drought planning. The Western Governors' Association as well as agencies like FEMA, for example, have been involved with national drought policy planning. Integrated climate/drought warning systems can be developed at the local level and with specific stakeholders in mind. Water laws can be modification and cross-boundary issues can be clarified.

2. Information exchange and dissemination. Information exchange and dissemination is critical to coping with climate induced stress. A central clearinghouse and local community outreach organizations could be established to disseminate information about technologies that could have potential impacts, both positive and negative, on climate change. Ongoing regional workshops could be used to disseminate and exchange this information.

3. Participation. Municipalities need to participate in mitigation planning by using strategies such as fiscal savings and incentive programs. Cooperation and partnerships at local levels and between entities at local and national or regional levels must be encouraged. This can be done be aligning incentives. Many of the existing problems are the result of government programs (or lack of programs) which do not align the incentives of individuals, municipalities or states with those of a long-term environmentally sustainable future.

4. Government programs. Government programs could provide better incentives through:
   • Farm Policy - farm policy needs to address incentives which promote environmentally and sustainable farming/ranching strategies such as: new rotation strategies including residue management; diversification instead of monoculture cropping; sequestration of carbon such as encouraging the appropriate use of nitrogen; resource conservation practices which are win-win, such as soil organic conservation; improved vegetation quality on rangelands; precision farming systems; appropriate water policy, regulation, and laws; better state laws concerning irrigation technology; regulation of point/non-source pollution through pollution control programs; regulation concerning the efficient use of water for municipal, agricultural, and industrial uses; creating incentives for alternative fuels; and such as the use of mass transit.
   • Natural Hazards Planning - natural hazards planning must include issues such as: hazards policy; drought and climate planning; flood planning; and soil conservation in terms of desertification reductions, and destabilization of Sand Hills.
   • Information and technology transfer - information needs to be transferred to users about the latest in areas such as: developments in technology; developments in research; outreach/marketing; extension information; information developed by other government agencies; and the latest information from non-governmental organizations.
   • Information and needs to be transferred to and from Academic institutions including K-12 and higher. It must include the participation of the whole community including suppliers, trainers of extension agents, National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS), etc. USDA's efforts have changed. Funds have been cut to support such things as in house workshops and on farm demonstrations.
   • Alternative energy - alternative energy sources need to be explored such as: wind power where farmers can get royalties from its use and expand their income generation from the land; biofuels where residues or specific crops (such as switch grass) can be used; methane from manure (large feedlot operation) where it could be made economically feasible with appropriate government support; or solar. It is important to get industries such as British Petroleum, Volvo, Toyota and others who have the vision to work with political agencies to jointly develop solutions to environmental and climate change.

IV. Information needs

In order to mitigate the effects of climate change, we need more information on:

• how the above coping strategies can best be designed and implemented at the local level;
• finer resolution and modeling can be used at more regional and local levels including phenomena such as frost free days, soil moisture, etc. This could be structured similar to the current information about El Niño - it must be science-based and credible;
• alternative energy technology;
• projected impacts of climate change and climate variation in terms stakeholders can understand and use;
• how climate change can affect soil moisture;
• how climate change can affect growing seasons;
• how crops will respond to climate change scenarios;
• changes in precipitation; drought and vulnerability;
• weather and climate including El Niño forecasting and seasonal to interannual variability and anomalies;
• monitoring about sensitivity and vulnerability (e.g. soil moisture, temperature, etc.);
• how stakeholders perceive and deal with climate change and climate variability such as how many people think that climate change is a problem (which segment of society), whether there is vocal opposition from certain segments of the society, and how many people think climate change is a problem and are scared of taking the risk required by the solution;
• information production transfer and diffusion mechanisms;
• opportunities such as pushing new technologies and science;
• the conditions or sectors that are more vulnerable such as those that have highly tuned precise crops and are not as flexible in the face of change;
• the decision making processes;
• affordable and accessible data sets for use by educators and others; and
• strategies for the implementation of the assessment.

V. Summary

These issues and concerns were discussed during the Great Plains Breakout meeting during the Climate Change Forum. The issues covered a broad range of issues reflecting the diversity of lifestyles and interests found in the Great Plains. However, it needs to be recognized that the views and perspectives are still a select set of voices, and that a great deal of further dialogue needs to undertaken so that a more complete understanding of the impact that climate change will have on the various sectors of the region.

From our discussion at the Forum, it is clear that people living in the Great Plains are robust and willing to participate in formulating solutions to possible climate change impacts and defining regions of risk and opportunities. The people of the Great Plains want to be part of the decision making process, so that they can contribute to the development of solutions and evaluation of the potential vulnerability of different sectors in the region.

Many of the participants see that a better method of exchanging views will promote a greater awareness of critical issues and reduce the conflict over resource competition in the now and in the future. The participants view this Forum a valuable vehicle for information exchange, however, is important for a greater effort for greater information exchange in the region itself.