Regional Workshops:

Upper Great Lakes, Spring 1998

Eastern Midwest, Spring 1998

What is the scope of this region? What are the primary characteristics of the geography and regional economy? This region includes the upper Great Lakes and the eastern Midwest extending south to include the Ohio River Valley. The area is dominated by agricultural lands, and has fairly extensive natural grasslands, forests, and wetlands, including part of the prairie pothole region. There are also several major metropolitan areas in the region associated with major industrial activities. Agriculture, freshwater fisheries, iron and asbestos mining, and the major manufacturing industries, including the automobile companies in and around Detroit, largely drive the regional economy.

What are current stresses on this region? In the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest areas, agricultural and industrial run-off are already compromising water quality. In recent years climate variability has dramatically altered water quantity particularly through major droughts and floods. Mining of asbestos, iron, etc., also contributes to local contamination. Water quality and quantity issues include threats to wetlands, water supply, native fisheries, and lakeshore erosion. Invasive, non-indigenous species are also threatening agricultural and natural ecosystems.

How might climate change and variability exacerbate or ameliorate these stresses? In the Upper Great Lakes region, climate change may lead to changes in aquatic life, water quality and quantity, lake level and temperature shifts; these could affect agriculture, ecosystems, and regional air quality. Altered precipitation and temperature regimes may lead to lower lake levels and affect the seasonal pattern and variability of water levels of wetlands. Long-term lake levels are predicted to decline to or below historic lows. However, in the Great Lakes (and generally in large, deep lakes and many high-latitude lakes), increases in water temperature may increase the survival and growth of most fish species, particularly warm water fish although some cold-water fish would be adversely impacted. Changes in late winter-early spring precipitation patterns could result in diminished frequency of ice jams and flooding.

What are the most important information needs that have been identified? The following types of information would be useful to advancing the understanding of vulnerabilities for the region, and for engaging relevant stakeholders:

• Improved projections of climate variability and change at regional scales.
• Education for ensuring that the nature of climate predictions and their uncertainties are well articulated and widely available.
• Communication of climate risk at the regional and local levels.

What are possible coping strategies that have been identified? The first strategy is to pursue options that can be taken now to address recognized problems (e.g., eliminating subsidies for rebuilding in flood-prone areas, developing urban heat warning systems, encouraging flexible water management across regional or local districts). In addition, there is a need to develop stronger partnerships among federal and academic researchers, regional, state, and local stakeholders, and the private sector to identify specific stakeholder issues and to adopt and incorporate advanced science results, technology, and data products into everyday operations and planning at the local and regional levels.