Regional Workshops:

Alaska, June 1997

Pacific Northwest, July 1997

What is the scope of this region? What are the primary characteristics of the geography and regional economy? The region includes the Western Arctic, stretching east to west from the Mackenzie to the Lena River, and the Pacific Northwest south to the Columbia River Basin watershed. It includes the states of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, as well as parts of the Yukon Territory and British Columbia in Canada, and parts of the Russian Arctic.

The traditional economic base in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon and Idaho) has been primary production of forest products and agriculture, providing about half the nation's softwood lumber and plywood. Today the regional economy is dominated by services and trade and in recent years, there has been significant growth in employment and income growth, putting the region in the top ten nationally in terms of non-agricultural job growth. However, there have been recent declines in forest product employment and productivity. Important products and industries for regional use and export include potatoes, apples, fruits, nuts, and berries, and catches from marine and freshwater fish.

The Western Arctic (Alaska) is critical to the national economy because it produces 20 percent of U.S. domestic petroleum consumption. Fisheries in the region are also a major part of the national economy, and the Bering Sea is one of the world's largest remaining fisheries, heavily utilized by many countries, including the United States, Russia, and Japan. The two largest fishing ports in the U.S. (Dutch Harbor and Kodiak) are located in the region. Alaska has major wildlife resources in the parks, wildlife refuges and preserves. They have sometimes been referred to as the Serengetti of the Arctic. Numerous Native villages with their subsistence economies and lifestyles add to the complex economy of the region.

What are current stresses on this region? In the Pacific Northwest, regional growth and changing allocation priorities are stressing the Columbia Basin river system, which is shared by many users for multiple purposes. It has been determined that there is already not enough water for the current demands on the supply. Over the next two decades, regional planners anticipate very high rates of in-migration. This level of population density will severely stress an already over-stressed system. In the Western Arctic, observed changes in the climate over the last three decades are larger than in any other region in the United States and are in fact close to the changes predicted by GCMs. The warmer climate has resulted in reduction in sea ice extent, receding glaciers, and thawing of the discontinuous permafrost, which has already put serious stresses on the region.

How might climate change and variability exacerbate or ameliorate these stresses? In the Pacific Northwest, there will be critical changes to the hydrological cycle affecting water availability and the timing of supply. This will affect all sectors and industries that depend upon a consistent supply of water, including coastal and estuarine ecosystems, aquatic ecosystems, agriculture, energy, forests and rangelands, and urban centers. Salmonids will be especially hard-hit in their freshwater and early ocean phases of their life cycle. Sea level rise could also affect both coastal and urban centers, although the risks are less than in the southern parts of the U.S.

The Arctic is one of the areas of the world expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. Major impacts in the Western Arctic due to decreases in snow cover and glacier mass balances, thawing of the permafrost and reductions in sea ice extent include costly damage to roads and other infrastructure, large-scale changes in ecosystems when permafrost thaws, changes in the productivity of marine ecosystems, economic impacts on the Bering Sea fisheries and on petroleum and other human activities in the region, and social impacts on northern indigenous populations. Many of these impacts are already observed and will become even more pronounced if present climate trends continue.

What are the most important information needs that have been identified? In the Pacific Northwest, the following information needs are critical: (1) a much better understanding of how climate change will affect the frequency and intensity of extreme events, especially thunderstorms, wind storms, rain-on-snow events, floods, droughts, and intense pressure gradients across the Cascades; (2) population growth and distribution to 2020 and 2050 and their impacts on consumption patterns, transportation requirements, municipal/industrial water supply needs, and land use conflicts; (3) implementing the climate change perspective into regional planning methodologies and assessing the sensitivity and vulnerability of major economic sectors to climate variability and change; (4) identification and evaluation of a suite of strategies for inducing behavioral change; and (5) a comprehensive assessment of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems' responses to climate change on a watershed basis and evaluation of their consequences for natural resource-based industries.

Information needed to assess the impacts due to climate change in the Western Arctic includes a wide variety of physical, biological and socio-economic parameters. Data on the natural variability of biological resources are needed for comparison with potential climate impacts. Future economic projections are difficult due to lack of data and the many additional complex factors that affect the regional economic performance. Since field work in the region is difficult and expensive and data sources are limited international cooperation is essential. Analysis and synthesis efforts must bring the diverse data and information sets together and future workshops must lead to iterative improvements of the entire impacts-assessment process.

What are possible coping strategies that have been identified? In the Pacific Northwest, improved watershed management is necessary to deal with the competition among multiple users, particularly hydropower production, irrigaton water supply and fisheries production. It will also be necessary to tap new sources of water and/or increase storage. In several sectors such as agriculture, diversification could be an important coping strategy.

Coping strategies in the Western Arctic include the establishment of adaptive resource management strategies in fisheries, forestry and other resource-related areas. A variety of forest management techniques, for example, might include design of forest areas to be more windfirm and design of forest regeneration programs to supplement forest responses to global warming effects. An effective policy for caribou management on the border of reindeer grazing zones should be considered. To mitigate problems associated with permafrost thawing current road construction policies in Alaska should be reviewed, including a variety of alternative construction techniques.