Quality of Rural Life on the Great Plains

Current demographic changes are imposing challenges to the rural areas of the Great Plains. The decrease and aging of rural populations, and the increased remoteness of neighbors place rural communities at increased socioeconomic risk. The growing urban areas are magnets for jobs and people. This shift in population increases the demand for services in urban areas, while increasing the burden on rural governments to provide health and education services with a declining economic base. The vulnerability of the rural population on the Great Plains will affect the region's ability to marshal resources, both natural and societal, to cope with increased risk and uncertainty. As the urban centers continue to grow, problems such as air quality will likely compromise the quality of life in urban areas, including the health-related aspects.

Because it is difficult to separate environmental, social, and economic impacts when considering quality of life on the Great Plains, these issues will be discussed together. Potential adaptation options follow.

The quality of rural life on the Great Plains is dependent on the weather and the climate, the impact that the weather has on the plants and animals of the region, and on the weather in other agricultural producing areas of the globe. Because rural populations and their communities are highly dependent on the natural resources of the Great Plains, they are at risk from climate change and from potential increases in climate variability. Rural economies in semi-arid regions are economically vulnerable due to lower profits and tax bases, fewer resources, and their reliance on livestock and cropping systems that are often stressed. Of particular importance, opportunities for international export will also depend on how climate change affects the global agricultural markets.

The projected changes in climate -- increases in temperature, reductions in soil moisture, and more intense rainfall events -- are likely to require changes in crop and livestock management in the Great Plains. The elevated atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide will possibly lower forage (food for grazing animals) quality of native grasses. Legumes, a potential source of nitrogen, could be a new and important part of farm and ranch management in the region. Increases in the extent of warm-season plants could be a welcome addition to a forage mix in the northern Great Plains. However, the loss of the current mix of warm- and cool-season forages in the central Great Plains could pose limitations in expanding grazing options.

Changes in when and what type (rain or snow) of precipitation occurs, particularly changes in precipitation during the growing season, are likely to affect rates of plant growth of both native vegetation and crops. Whether or not the plant community will be able to accommodate changes in growing season climate or hydrological (water cycle) patterns is a matter of concern among stakeholders who have come to depend on these weather patterns for their livelihood. Warmer winters are likely to mean an increased chance of rain rather than snow -- resulting in enhancing the competitive advantages of shrubs. This is a potentially important issue for forage animals. More intensive storm activity and an increased frequency of heat waves will likely be an increasing problem for the southern Great Plains.

The consequences of weather and change on agricultural economics, beef cattle production, and grassland use can be subtle and complex due to indirect effects from international trade, cost of feed, and markets. Most agricultural commodities are subject to production/price cycles. The time between peaks and troughs of production are controlled largely by the producer's ability to respond to prices and consumer behavior. However, climate variability, especially drought, can significantly modify the dynamics of, for example, cattle inventories and production/price cycles, resulting in losses to producers. For example, the 1995-96 Texas drought resulted in larger numbers of cattle being sent to market due to poor range condition, increased corn feed prices, and a significantly diminished winter wheat feed crop that resulted in lower prices for producers. While this could be a short-term advantage to consumers, such stresses can have important, negative impacts on the economics of farm communities in the Great Plains.

Strategies for improving the quality of rural life in the Great Plains under changing climate conditions could include numerous options. This list is not exhaustive and should be used as a starting point. For example:

• No regrets strategies, developed from the bottom-up through community-based efforts, can be effective in reducing risk and increasing diversification. Because each community has different needs and values, community-based approaches to address issues related to adaptation and mitigation of climate change and variability are usually most successful;
• Coping strategies not only provide direct benefits to the farmer or rancher, but can also be beneficial to the environment. In the agricultural sector, various strategies of this type have evolved to cope with drought and soil erosion. For example, the loss of carbon and water from croplands can be minimized through practices such as reduced tillage. Cover crops and residue management can facilitate soil conservation by suppressing soil loss from wind and water erosion. Precision agricultural practices that integrate specialized crop varieties, fertilizer inputs, and irrigation schedules into crop management can make better use of technology to cope with climate changes; and
• Diversification is a proven strategy that has helped in coping with other climate and economic events in the Great Plains. Diversification of land use is an important strategy to increase profits and/or reduce risk. However, institutional factors have often limited the ability of people in the Great Plains to diversify their operations and their local and regional economies. Livestock enterprises are often a mix of range management and planted forage or crop activities. Examples of diversification could include ranch operations that embrace recreation, or new strategies such as carbon credits (giving incentives to increase the amount of carbon stored in the land). Land-use diversification strategies could include:

1. changing the mix of animal species to better fit the changed environmental conditions,
2. genetics adjustment of plant and animal species
3. changing the seasonal pattern of production (e. g., calving, lambing, weaning), or
4. reducing production practices in stressful environments.