About this paper

This paper examines the potential impacts of climate change on our nation's islands.  It is intended as a resource for educators.  The paper's content is based on information from numerous sources - most especially from one chapter within the National Assessment Synthesis Foundation document:  Lynne M. Carter, Eileen Shea, Mike Hamnett, Cheryl Anderson, Glenn Dolcemascolo, Charles “Chip -- Guard, Melissa Taylor, Tony Barnston, Yuxiang He, Matthew Larsen, Lloyd Loope, LaShaunda Malone, and Gerald Meehl, Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the US Affiliated Islands of the Pacific and Caribbean, pp. 315-349 in The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change: Foundation Report, Report by the National Assessment Synthesis Team for the US Global Change Research Program, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 620pp., 2001. 

The paper's content is also based on information from workshops in two regions (Hawaii and the Pacific Islands, and the South Atlantic-Coast and Caribbean) attended by representatives from government, industry, academic, Native, and non-governmental organizations; Assessment research; and other research reports.  Workshop participants identified many potential environmental, social, and economic impacts of climate change that were of concern to them.  Four of these are discussed.  The four areas include: ensuring adequate freshwater supplies; protecting public safety and infrastructure from climate extremes; protecting rare and unique ecosystems; and responding to sea-level fluctuations.  Each topic of concern is addressed in turn below, accompanied by initial suggestions about how the region may be able to cope with or ameliorate the potential impacts. 

Several of the identified topics are currently issues of concern to society for reasons other than climate changes.  For example, climate change is very likely to increase the rate at which sea level is rising.  This is a potential problem because many coastal communities and infrastructure are built in vulnerable locations or according to building codes that are not likely to be stringent enough to protect them.  Potential climate impacts give one additional reason for considering actions.  It is also important to realize that some of the projected climate changes and their impacts will be gradual and slow to develop while others will be nearer term and more noticeable. 

Also, because we are talking about changes and impacts extending over as much as the next 100 years, we may well have time to take actions that could make it easier to moderate the potential negative consequences.  The focus of this paper is less on the potential positive consequences because government responsibilities are typically to ameliorate adverse consequences, because they tend to be within the realm of past experience.  Positive outcomes typically arise as people identify the opportunities changes present and create new (and less foreseeable) activities.  Therefore, caution should be taken in drawing conclusions about potential net consequences - while change will occur, how society responds will be a key determinant for many types of consequences. 

For additional information on this region, please see:

• the Hawaii and the Pacific Islands Regional Assessment report and included Workshop notes

• the South Atlantic-Coast and Caribbean workshop report and website and the National Assessment Synthesis Team's reports. 

This paper was developed by Dr. Lynne M. Carter.  Special thanks to the authors of the Foundation document for allowing it to be the basis of this paper and to the Regional program directors: Eileen Shea, Pacific Region, and Ricardo Alvarez, South Atlantic-Coast and Caribbean, for contributions to and reviews of the information contained here.