In a number of regions, Native economies are strongly dependent on tourism, agriculture, and other environmentally sensitive activities. As a result of likely shifts in temperature and precipitation, and changes in ecosystems that are based on the prevailing climate, human activities are likely to require adjustments away from those traditionally undertaken. For example, hotter and drier summer conditions are likely to limit recreational use of forest campgrounds and lakes at lower elevations while potentially allowing more use at higher elevations.

Although none of the primary barriers to development on reservations is currently a result of long-term climate change, recent variations and changes in weather patterns are requiring tribes to adapt and adjust their actions and plans. Tribes have already identified many local needs in response to an increasing frequency of disruptions from severe storms for example. They include improving or re-routing roads (many of which are unpaved), flood control and bank stabilization, providing new or more reliable water and drainage services for industrial sites, strengthening communications links and power supplies, and altering schedules and calendars at schools and medical clinics to adapt to changing weather conditions. Tribal communities now experiencing sharp changes in precipitation patterns are already modifying reservation infrastructures (roads, sanitary systems, etc). to deal with such situations. Projections of increased extreme rains are likely to cause more pressure to improve infrastructure on reservations. Because of likely significant warming and the rise in the heat index, alterations in community buildings and water supply systems will probably be necessary. For the future, longer-term changes in water resources on which many tribes, particularly those in the Southwest depend, are likely to have significant consequences for resource-based sectors such as agriculture and industry that depend on stable water supplies.

The economic viability of many aspects of recreation and tourism is based on natural attractions that depend on the prevailing climate -- rivers and lakes provide water-based recreation opportunities, forests provide campsites and trails, and the wildlife, including migrating fish and birds, and flowering of plants, attract many visitors. As the climate changes, these environments will change: reduced winter runoff from reduced snow cover is likely to reduce the flow in many streams; drier summer conditions are likely to increase the fire risk and require closure of campgrounds; and the combined effects of climate and ecosystem change are likely to disrupt wildlife and plant communities.

Many tribes are basing an increasing share of their economic development on recreation and tourism. Tourism and recreation-based activities take advantage of the attractions of rivers, lakes, mountains, forests, and the other elements of the natural aesthetic beauty of reservations without, in most cases, causing long-term change. Cultural and historical sites and ceremonies of Native peoples can also be used to attract tourists. These activities provide income while also encouraging the re-establishment of customs and traditions that had been suppressed for many decades by federal policies.

Cultural traditions that draw visitors (and their money) are often tied to the cycles of the seasonal rhythms in plant and animal life, with some traditions honoring annual weather-related events that are likely to be significantly affected by climatic change. The willingness to visit reservations for such events is dependent on the existence (and even the perception) of a safe and healthy environment. Such conditions can be disrupted by unusual climate related events. In 1993, for example, a hantavirus outbreak associated with unusually heavy rains caused by El Niño conditions created a perception of an unhealthy environment. The rains supported high production of piŅon nuts and other food sources, leading to an explosion in the hanta-bearing mouse population. This high mouse population then encroached on human populations, resulting in a number of virus-caused deaths. This one event led to a significant reduction in tourist visits to the Southwest, especially to Pueblo country, indicating how vulnerable sensitive tourist-based economies can be in the event of the outbreak of rare, but frightening diseases, even when these outbreaks are not occurring primarily on Indian reservations. It is possible that a change toward more intense El Niño/La Niña variations could increase the likelihood of such conditions.

The most urgent priorities for tribal governments and communities over the past thirty years have been economic development and job creation. Many tribes have based their development initiatives around land-based enterprises, that include: dryland and irrigation-based agriculture in the central and western US; forestry and forest products in the central, western, and sub-Arctic regions; and recreation- and tradition-based tourism in areas ranging from Hawaii and Alaska to the central, western, and southwestern US. All of these activities are dependent on favorable weather and climatic conditions. Although few of these enterprises have generated enough income to develop a strong economic base for entire tribes, they are all vital to economic development for tribal communities. Adverse conditions, from severe winter storms to unusually wet or dry conditions, can have very severe economic effects, especially because tribal communities are already economically stressed. The 1990 census indicated that 31.6% of all Indian people were below the poverty line, compared to 13.1% of the total population. From 1969 though 1989, of the 23 reservations studied, per capita income declined on 18 reservations during the 1980s. The sustained growth of the American economy over the past decade has mostly been missed by Native American households and reservations.

While some economic diversification of reservation economies is underway, and casino gambling is becoming a basis for attracting tourists in a number of regions, tribal economies tend to be more closely tied to their environments than is typical for the surrounding communities. Because of this, tribal economies tend to be more vulnerable to negative changes and, on the other hand, more likely to benefit from climatic changes that provide opportunities by enhancing water availability.

Several strategies are available if climate-change impacts Community Development and Tourism issues significantly in the NPNH regions. To address these impacts, enhancement and diversification of reservation resources and the strategic integration of tribal economies with local non-Indian economies could help to make the tribal economies more resilient and sustainable.

At the same time, climate change and resulting policy actions are likely to create some economic opportunities for NPNH regions. For example, an increased demand for renewable energy, from wind and solar options, could create new opportunities because undeveloped tribal lands could be an important resource for such energy in areas that are already highly developed. For tribes in the Great Plains, for example, this region could utilize its tremendous wind resource. Development of such an alternative energy source could help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as alleviate management problems created by demands for Missouri River hydropower, thereby helping to maintain water levels for power generation, navigation, and recreation. In addition, there could be opportunities for carbon sequestration on reservations.