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The Northeast evokes images that range from quaint villages of historical significance to intense congestion along one of our nation's most densely populated corridors. For this paper, the area is defined as including the six New England states and upstate New York (in the New England Regional Assessment - NERA), and portions of seven Mid-Atlantic states and the District of Columbia (in the Mid-Atlantic Assessment - MARA). [This description does not include the New York City metropolitan area (the Metro East Coast region-MEC), it is a separate region focused almost entirely on urban issues.]. The region is home to approximately 20% of the US population. This part of our nation includes a vast network of waterways, extensive shorelines, and a varied landscape. These provide great opportunities for water recreation, fishing, skiing, hiking, and the annual autumn tree color change that defines New England for so many.

The Northeast's economy and population are as diverse as its geography. Livelihoods are based on: service industries that depend heavily on communication networks and travel; the manufacture and transport of industrial goods and materials; recreation and tourism; agriculture; and resource extraction - forestry, fisheries, and mining. The populations that live and work in the Northeast, especially those in major metropolitan areas, are ethnically, racially, and economically diverse - a characteristic that is expected to continue to evolve.

Potential changes in the climate over the 21^st century could affect many facets of life in the Northeast, particularly those that are currently sensitive to climate. For example, climate change is likely to have direct impacts on agriculture, forestry, fishing, tourism, and outdoor recreation such as skiing. Human health is also likely to be effected, because changes in climate could aggravate existing health stresses and those posed by pollutants emitted here or carried by the winds from other regions. In coastal areas, infrastructure (the institutions, facilities, and services available to a community) is likely to be affected by climate-induced rise in sea level. Other potential concerns include impacts on the region's ecosystems, water supply and quality, commerce, and infrastructure (including energy sources and transportation systems).

Diversity characterizes the Northeast's climate, with severe storms, winter blizzards, heat-waves, floods, and droughts. Over the past century, air temperatures have warmed as much as 4˚F along the coast from Chesapeake Bay to Maine. Precipitation (both rain and snow) has, depending on the location, increased from 4% - 20% since 1895. For the region as a whole, the average number of days with snow on the ground has decreased by over a week (7.5 days since 1953 for VT/NH/ME) over the last 50 years. Six of the last 40 years of the 20^th century were characterized by significant drought in portions of the region. At the same time, precipitation extremes appear to be increasing and the land areas experiencing drought appear to be decreasing.

Global computer models, although imperfect at describing local conditions, suggest that the recently observed trends in climate that were described above will continue. These trends are expected to result in warmer winters and longer and hotter summertime conditions. Coastal regions and winter minimum temperatures are projected to undergo the greatest change, with warming from 4˚F to as much as 10˚F by 2100. Projections of changes in precipitation are less certain, with models estimating from 10 - 30% increases, primarily during the summer in New England.

Changes elsewhere are generally uncertain although most results indicate a larger percentage of precipitation is likely to come in heavy downpours. Coastal precipitation is likely to be variable, but increasing as well. Some models project more frequent occurrence of intense extreme weather events, while other models do not. If model projections of more frequent and intense extreme weather events were to occur, winter thaw events, flooding, and summer droughts would be more likely. Although the Northeast is considered ‘water rich' because of its high level of precipitation, drought has been and remains a significant concern for this region. Limited water storage, and large, aging water supply systems that are challenged to respond to changing water demands in the Northeast enhance the region's vulnerability to future drought or flooding episodes.

Observed precipitation changes during the last century are a patchwork of moderate increases and decreases.  The Canadian model scenario for the next century indicates near neutral trends or modest increases, while the Hadley model projects increases of near 25% for the region.