Tourism in the Northeast is a multibillion-dollar industry that involves everything from national and international hotel chains to small tour operators. The Northeast's attractions for visitors include historic places, forests, pastoral settings, shorelines, and mountains. This discussion is focused on potential impacts to tourism and outdoor recreation that take place in forested areas during all seasons of the year. For tourists and other visitors to this region, climate conditions and the health of the region's natural resources are an important attraction and can profoundly affect their travel and recreation experience.

The Northeast (being downwind) is the recipient of air pollutants produced by mid-western states. These imported pollutants also combine with regionally derived sources of air pollutants, resulting in even higher levels of air pollution. The haze associated with these air pollutants, as well as the smog and the chemicals that become ground level ozone, often blanket parts of the region. The haze sometimes compromises mountain vistas and, along with high levels of ozone, can affect the health of those recreating in the mountains and the health of some of the region's forests. Although particles contribute to more colorful sunsets, the haze they create has dramatically reduced the clarity of mountain views appreciated by visitors and residents alike.

On warm humid days when temperatures exceed 90ºF, ozone problems are exacerbated across the region. The top figure shows the view on a clear day at the Great Gulf of Mount Washington, New Hampshire. The bottom figure shows the same view when temperatures exceed 90ºF and air quality problems occur.

Of even greater concern is the health risk posed by ground-level ozone. The young, those with asthma or heart problems, and the elderly are particularly at-risk, because ozone and sulfate aerosols affect lung function. Even healthy adult hikers can be affected. New Hampshire's Mt. Washington, visited by 60,000 hikers each year, commonly has ozone levels that exceed that of local valleys and surpass national health standards. In a study of the impact of hiking on lung function, the indication is that the effects of exposure to even low levels (40 ppb - one third of the current EPA air quality standard) of ozone were greater than were previously documented in either field or chamber studies. The findings suggest that chronic (8 hour) exposure to low levels of ozone may be as damaging to lung function as short-term exposure to higher levels. The Appalachian Mountains, another much hiked range in the region, is subject to similar air pollution problems that are also likely to increase with rising temperatures.

Forests of the Northeast region could be affected by climate change in many ways that could compromise tourism and outdoor recreation. Ground-level ozone and other air-borne pollutants threaten the health of the Northeast's forests. High-elevation spruce and fir forests are as much at risk from exposure to pollution as they are from climate-related winter freeze injury because of their relative susceptibility to ozone impacts. The renowned fall foliage of this region will also suffer if changes in climate result in: significant changes in the preferred range of species northward; forest diebacks; or delayed or disparate coloration. A knowledgeable researcher has suggested that the region's famed maples, which exhibit such brilliant fall colors, as well as its birch and spruce trees, could experience major diebacks by the mid-21^st century as a result of possible extreme weather events associated with climate changes.

The Northeast's very sparse alpine ecosystem, valued by nature enthusiasts, is also at risk. The largest of the mere 13 square miles of alpine habitat in the eastern part of our nation is found in New Hampshire's White Mountain National Forest. The survival of this ecosystem is threatened because it is small, isolated, and would be slow to re-colonize, or could not recover, should warming temperatures create conditions where alpine ecosystems cannot survive. A similar pattern recently has been witnessed in alpine ecosystems of Austria and Switzerland, where localized warming has resulted in upward shifts of plant boundaries at a rate of 313 feet of elevation per decade.

One problem is that the Northeast does not have the mountain altitude to support as much upward relocation if that were to become necessary. Some feel New England's alpine ecosystem could also be at risk from trees moving farther up mountains and invading the alpine regions. However, at least one researcher suggests that that isn't likely because the area where trees can grow is limited not only by the growing season, but also by winter damage from icing. So, if warmer, wetter winters occur and produce more ice storms (particularly at high elevation), then increases in ice damage could keep the trees from invading the alpine ecosystems.

Also at risk in the Northeast are recreational fisheries. Cold-water species are particularly susceptible to changes in water temperature, and all fish species are vulnerable to chemical changes in the atmosphere, such as acid rain, that affect their environment. Changes in extreme weather conditions could result in ice formation, flooding, and droughts that also would pose challenges to fisheries. Impacts on recreational and commercial fishing are discussed more fully in another section of this paper.

Warm spells and low precipitation levels that require ski areas to make snow, add costs to ski operations and add other pressures. Snow-making requires water -- between 150,000 and 180,000 gallons of water are required to cover one acre of ski trails with one foot of snow. Such an increased demand for water could adversely affect water resources needed for agricultural, personal, or environmental purposes.

Studies indicate that there will be more warming in the northern latitudes than the projected global average, with more of the warming likely to occur at night and in winter than during the day and in summer. [For the New England states and upstate New York, the temperature increase for the winter months (D,J,F) during the past 105 years has been 1.8˚F, compared with an annual increase of 0.7˚F. These historic temperature changes are generally consistent with the model projections.] Both the Canadian and Hadley models also suggest increased precipitation will occur in the region. Over the last 50 years, the region as a whole has witnessed a reduction of 7 days in the length of the snow-on-ground period. Even if only the present trend continues, there will be fewer and fewer days with the snow-cover and cold temperatures important both ecologically and economically. Temperature increases and potential changes in precipitation and extreme weather events could, therefore, be harmful to an area that is economically dependent on tourism in all seasons.

Economic statistics document the importance of the tourism and outdoor recreation industry for the mountain regions of the Northeast. In 1990, for instance, nearly 41,000 jobs in Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York were in forest-based recreation and tourism, accounting for earnings of $1.24 billion. In New Hampshire, tourism alone was responsible for 12 % of total employment and 7 % of the state's tax revenue. Residents of the Northeast also rely on the recreational opportunities offered by the region's natural resources. In New England, more than 58 % of residents participated in some form of wildlife-associated recreation in 1991, spending about $2.5 billion.

Fall foliage weekends, often the busiest time of the year in the Northeast, could be compromised with climate change. However, the hiking season could become longer with more snow-free days in the mountains of the Northeast, although potential increases in temperature, fires, forest dieback, pests, and pathogens could offset this possible benefit. Moreover, if transported pollution increases in this region, hikers could be adversely affected. In a 1997 survey, 86% of sightseers surveyed confirmed that they felt that any changes from clear to hazy vistas in the White Mountains would diminish their outdoor experience.

Skiing is an example of an industry that not only relies heavily on natural resources, but also on climate. The ski-industry, like much of the tourism in the Northeast, is extremely climate-dependent and has a narrow cost/profit margin of economic viability. Economic gain or loss can depend on the difference of several days or weeks of favorable weather. Cold-weather recreation, dominated by skiing and snowboarding, generates a significant portion of the tourism-based revenue in this region. Warming would generally cause the ski areas to open later in the fall and close earlier in the spring, thus shortening the season. If weather conditions permit, significant additional expense for snowmaking might be able to sustain season length and help to protect the viability of ski resorts.

Not only does a shortened season reduce potential profitability of the ski industry, it reduces employment. For example, in New Hampshire in the winter of 1995-96, about 4,600 people were directly employed by the ski industry, with another approximately 12,500 indirectly employed to provide goods and services to skiers. The annual payroll from these jobs was $185 million, and the total addition to the state's economy was $420 million in tax revenue from this industry alone. The region's ski industry also provides a secondary benefit to New Hampshire's economy. Between July 1995 and June 1996, the ski industry in New Hampshire generated an estimated $319 million in secondary sales of, for example, ski equipment, lodging, and restaurant dining, $48 million from taxes associated with secondary spending, and $18 million in state and local taxes and fees. The off-season outdoor recreational opportunities in New Hampshire generated another $53 million in 1995.

The impact is even greater in Vermont, where 11,000 people were directly employed by the ski industry in the mid-1990s and another 22,000 were indirectly employed to service skier spending. During this period, the ski industry added $750 million to Vermont's economy and comprised 33 % of that state's tourism industry. The State of Vermont also calculates that for every dollar spent in a Vermont ski area, it generates an additional 94 cents in spending in the state. Many ski areas in the region are diversifying into resorts with a broader range of four-season activities. If even present climate trends continue, the diversification of recreational activities will become even more important; with climate change these trends are likely to intensify, altering the general character of tourism in the region.

Strategies to mitigate or cope with the effects of climate change on tourism and outdoor recreation could include the following:

• To protect fragile ecosystems from further exposure to pollutants, encourage appropriate alternative transportation modes into, within, and out of recreation areas and develop trail systems for non-motorized use;
• Inform the hospitality and tourism industries and the public about the potential for climate change and its likely impacts so they can offer and expect a diversity of alternative all-weather/all-season activities and infrastructure in traditional recreation locales;
• Create a system for smog alerts and health warnings to advise people conducting outdoor recreation activities;
• Develop new technologies that induce freezing of water at higher temperatures;
• Increase the efficiency of snow-making per volume of water;
• Tap alternative energy sources that increase the energy efficiency of snow-making and other ski-industry activities; and
• Enlarge ponds that are especially designed to provide water for snow-making.