The RMGB is one of the nation's -- and world's -- premier outdoor recreation and tourism destinations. With world-class skiing, fly-fishing, rafting, biking, hiking, rock-climbing, camping and hunting, and simply viewing of spectacular landscapes, tourism has become a major contributor to the region's economy. Some 16 national parks, monuments, and other natural-area units of the National Park System alone attract millions of tourists each year. Yellowstone National Park hosts 3 million visitors each year. Many of these outdoor recreational opportunities are influenced by the overall climate and in some cases are directly climate dependent. Many of the recreational areas are already stressed and overused and these environmental stresses could be exacerbated by any negative climate-change affects.

In the minds of many Americans, skiing in the Rockies is synonymous with winter recreation. Yet, climate-induced threats to this region's snowpack could compromise what for some is fun and for others a livelihood. At present, lower-elevation ski resorts are affected during warm winters, and for these resorts snow quality and quantity have shown marked decreases in recent decades. If winter temperatures rose without accompanying increases in snowfall (which is one possibility projected for this region) even less snow would blanket the region's mountains, creating a much shorter ski season. However, even increases in fall and winter precipitation are likely to be of little benefit to the region's snowpack and ski industry because the precipitation may well fall as rain. Warming conditions also hold the potential to trigger avalanche conditions that are a risk to skiers, boarders, and hikers and would hasten the retreat of glaciers, a process that has already begun. For example, the area covered by glaciers in Glacier National Park has declined by 70% from the area occupied at Park establishment in the early 1900s. At present warming and recession rates, all glaciers in the Park are expected to disappear over the next 30 years.

Water-based recreation is another sector that could be affected by climate change, depending on how precipitation changes. Sport fishing has long been popular in the streams and lakes of the West, but in recent years there has been a surge of interest in white-water rafting, kayaking, and canoeing in the scenic rivers and streams of the region. There has also been increasing interest in wind-surfing, water skiing, and boating in lakes and reservoirs.

If the projected population growth occurs (i.e., doubling expected within a few decades), there will be sharp increases in competition among all users of the already over-appropriated water resources. The projected increases in precipitation could ease this competition. However, if the increase in precipitation is less than projected, and/or if evapotranspiration increases significantly with increasing temperatures, the competition could be more intense. In that case, western water specialists imagine that environmental values (e.g., preservation of threatened and endangered species) and recreational uses would be given lowest priority for water allocations.

In contract to the grim picture in winter, some climate-change effects on recreation and tourism in the RMGB could be positive. Earlier springs and shorter winters could lengthen the spring-to-fall tourist season and increase tourist influx. Also, significantly increased temperatures in the already hot, southern portions of the country could increase desires to seek the moderate summer temperatures of the region's higher, mountain elevations.

Millions of people value the outdoor attractions available in the RMGB. Moreover, the entire social fabric and infrastructure of some of this region's communities are based on the tourist flows attracted by the recreational opportunities -- Vail, Moab, and Jackson Hole come immediately to mind. Changes in the availability of those recreational opportunities could have wide-reaching impacts on attracting tourists and retaining the permanent residents whose living depends on the region's many-faceted outdoor recreation industry.

Potential effects specific to the ski industry are expected to be very significant. Even if increased precipitation allows for production of more artificial snow, the quality of that snow could be compromised, however, if warmer winter temperatures persisted. Although warmer conditions could make skiing more enjoyable for some patrons, the best skiing available may well be at higher elevations with steeper terrain, eliminating opportunities for skiers seeking less challenging slopes.

Sports anglers could be disappointed by their catch, as species and population numbers could be altered with climate change.

On a positive note, however, increases in temperature could encourage a host of other recreational activities. Mountain biking, hiking, and camping would all likely prosper with warmer temperatures that could well expand the seasons in which these activities are pursued.

In 1997, overnight travelers spent $7.1 billion in just one RMGB State -- Colorado. In turn, these expenditures generated 112,000 jobs and a total payroll of $1.5 billion. Further, Colorado's ski industry alone generates $1.7 billion of revenue each year. Utah also derives significant economic benefit from its ski industry, with annual revenues of $800 million.

Clearly, any change in climate that would affect this region's mighty ski industry would present significant economic concerns. Smaller, lower-elevation ski resorts, already operating on the margin, would be at greatest risk of losing operating ability if the number of ski days per season decreased. By way of example, Beaver Mountain in Utah, situated at a lower elevation, needs about 100 to 105 days available for skiing per season to realize the typical industry profit margin of 6.5 to 7 %. A mere two-degree increase in temperature could reduce this resort's revenues by 20 %. Again, location can be crucial to success. Resorts at higher elevations might not be negatively affected by projected changes in climate, and some resorts could even benefit from wet snows that help build a better snow base.

Also impacted by the effects of climate change on the ski industry would be the many support industries that derive revenue from skiing. Ski equipment and clothing manufacturers and retailers, travel agencies, resort hotels, and local restaurants could all face economic challenges should the RMGB ski industry be compromised. Impacts on property values would also be in this same category. Many of the ski areas that are associated with significant amounts of private land (many areas are built only on national forests) are the locations of major, up-scale, real estate development. Vail and Aspen in Colorado, Deer Valley and Park City in Utah, Sun Valley, Idaho and Jackson, Wyoming are prime examples. Lots and homes are routinely valued in millions of dollars. Ski-area officials are in wide agreement that these property values would plummet if skiing were to disappear, even with allowances for continued use for summer recreational activities.

Strategies to avoid or lessen the possible impacts of climate change include the following:

• Fully inform ski areas, and particularly developers contemplating the construction of low-elevation ski areas, of the climate changes currently being projected.
• Develop indoor facilities and alternative activities for the public to enjoy during warmer winter periods.
• Support and facilitate water conservation, including modification of western water law that presently encourages inefficiency of use and constrains freedom with which different users exchange water rights.