*** DRAFT COPY-AS OF 3/15/99 ***
After the Water Sector Workshop, the Water Resources Sector Assessment
Team met to discuss the content, organization, compilation, and production
of the sector's report to the National Assessment's Synthesis Team. To
start, the requirements for the production of the report were summarized.
The Water-Resources SAT must provide the Synthesis Team a variety of information
by January 2000, addressing the four basic questions:
- What are the current environmental stresses on a region or sector?
- How will projected changes in climate variability exacerbate or ameliorate
the effects of the existing regional or sectoral stresses, or introduce
- What information is needed to provide better and more certain estimates
of the consequences of climate variability and climate change?
- What strategies may help the region or sector to cope with the anticipated
consequences of changes in climate, especially in ways that also will
help in coping with other stresses? What opportunities exist for "win-win"
or "no regrets" responses?
A draft of this report must be produced by March 1999. The final report
should be written for a fairly general audience; the readership will include
Congress and water managers around the country. It should tell what is
known and not known about water resources. The outline of the synthesis
report was derived at the Woods Hole meeting and was circulated for comment
In response to the needs of the synthesis report, a list of assignments
was drawn up by the Water-Resources SAT (a detailed list of those assignments
is available from the SAT). Those assignments represent pieces of the
problem that must be pulled together to prepare the Water Sector's report
to the Synthesis Team. Those pieces include:
- The compilation of a comprehensive bibliography on the effects of
climate change on water resources.
- Howard Pearlman of the USGS is summarizing 1995 water demand.
- Gerry Hansler is summarizing the concerns of water managers.
- Past watershed modeling is being reviewed by Chou at the USGS, the
Pacific Institute, McCabe at the USGS, Lettenmaier at the University
of Washington, Frank Quinn from the Great Lakes Environmental Research
Laboratory, Schwandt at the University of Texas at El Paso, etc.
- New hydrologic models need to be developed that use the outputs from
GCMs, such as CCM Plus and others.
- The major drivers of water quality and how they may be affected by
climate change or variability need to be identified and described.
- Extreme events need to be investigated by evaluating the current stream
flow, national stream-flow records, Tom Karl's historical precipitation
records, and Bruce Hayden's work.
- Judy Meyer, Mike Sale, and Steve Hostetler will model lakes to assess
ecosystem functioning and health.
- Ken Frederick is working on the socioeconomic costs of climate change.
- The Groundwater Institute is conducting a comprehensive review of
the effects of climate change on groundwater.
- Aris Georgakakis at Georgia Tech is compiling a national map of soil
- A baseline scenario of population and water use is being developed
to support a national reconnaissance at the eight-digit level for one
GCM (Norm Rosenberg's) and three concentrations of carbon dioxide.
- We need to develop an overview of legal issues.
- We should use a variety of GCMs to estimate water runoff for the conterminous
United States and compare the annual runoff predicted by the different
- Dave Wolock and Steve Hostetler will use the Canadian Climate Model
to analyze watershed outputs.
A schedule was discussed for accomplishing the tasks listed above. In
the next week, one-paragraph abstracts will be prepared on each project
being done, telling what is going to be accomplished. For those who want
to participate in the American Water Resources Association (AWRA) symposium
in Atlanta, the call for papers lays out the schedule. An outline for
the water-sector report should be developed in the next three weeks. By
October 1, anyone that needs climate-model data must notify Dennis Felder
a list of needed data. First drafts of review and qualitative papers will
be due by Feb. 15, and outlines of the modeling and quantitative papers
will be due at the same time. Final papers should be finished by summer
for inclusion in the report.
The next meeting of the complete SAT and A-Team will be a gathering at
the AWRA meeting in Atlanta in May to set the content of the report. Members
of the SAT and some of the Advisory Team will be asked to write sections
of the report and to review the draft report before that meeting.
The group then discussed what outreach efforts should be attempted. The
suggested actions were:
- Invite representatives from governmental, NGO, professional, and environmental-advocacy
groups (including the Nature Conservancy, American Rivers, Pacific Rivers,
and Riverkeepers) to meet at the Atlanta conference to give their input
- Publish a short call for papers for the Atlanta conference in Eos.
- Identify science writers and feed them information; Lynn Mortenson
at the U.S. Global Change Research Program/National Assessment Coordination
Office is putting together media releases.
- We have two websites, one on the National Assessment home page and
one on the USGS home page where we can post material.
- We should develop an outreach plan to contact a broad range of stakeholders.