• 1) Market World - a future based on the belief that market forces and new technology will lead to rising prosperity and will offer humanity a bright future, a future in which markets rule and global corporations dominate. In this scenario, economic reform and technological innovation fuel rapid economic growth. Developing regions are integrated into the global economy, creating a powerful global market, and bringing modern techniques and products to virtually all countries. The result is widespread prosperity, peace, and stability. This vision of the future is explicitly or implicitly endorsed by the vast majority of corporate leaders and economic theorists whose voices appear to be bolstered by the failure of centrally-planned economies.

• 2) Fortress World - a grimmer future in which islands of prosperity are surrounded by oceans of poverty and despair, a future of conflict, violence, instability, social chaos, and growing environmental degradation. This scenario is a pessimistic vision based on the failure of market-led growth to redress social wrongs and prevent environmental disasters, at least in many parts of the world, so that on the belief that unconstrained markets will exacerbate these problems, large portions of humanity will be left out of the prosperity that markets bring to others. In this scenario these failures eventually destroy the natural resources and social framework on which markets and economic growth depend. Economic stagnation spreads as more resources are diverted to maintain security and stability. Economic fragmentation occurs where conflict dominates or the social order breaks down. In this scenario enclaves of wealth and prosperity coexist, in tension, with widening misery and growing desperation.

• 3) Transformed World - a future in which fundamental social and political changes offer hope of fulfilling human aspirations. This is a visionary scenario in which fundamental social and political change, possibly even changed values and cultural norms, give rise to enlightened policies and voluntary actions that direct or supplement market forces. This scenario envisions a society in which power is more widely shared and in which new social coalitions work from the grass roots up to shape what institutions and governments do. Although markets become effective tools for economic progress, they do not substitute for deliberate social choices. In this scenario economic competition exists but does not outweigh the larger needs for cooperation and solidarity among the world's peoples and for the fulfillment of basic human needs. This vision asserts the possibility of fundamental change for the better - in politics, social institutions, and the environment.

Surprisingly, the results of this analysis suggest that China's future does not look as secure as conventional wisdom would have it. Latin America, but for one problem, might well become the richest of any developing region. Southeast Asia, despite its current problems, may still have the brightest future of any developing region. And the most dubious and difficult future goes not to sub Saharan Africa but to North Africa and the Middle East.

Dr. Allen Hammond is senior scientist and director of strategic analysis for the World Resources Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan research institute located in Washington, D.C. His responsibilities include institute-wide leadership in the use of analytical methods and information tools for policy research, direction of the Strategic Indicator Research Initiative on environmental and sustainable development indicators, development of WRI's Communications 2000 strategy, and writing and research on long-term sustainability issues. He was formerly the editor-in-chief of the World Resources Report series.

Prior to joining WRI, Dr. Hammond created the Research News section of the international journal "Science" and went on to found, and serve as editor, of several national publications, including "Science News" (published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science), "Issues in Science and Technology" (published by the National Academy of Sciences), and the "Information Please Environmental Almanac" (published by Houghton Mifflin). In addition, he broadcast a daily radio program for four years (syndicated nationally by CBS), and has written or edited ten books. His most recent book is "Which World?" Scenarios for the 21st Century", published by Island Press.

Dr. Hammond has won several national magazine awards and other journalist honors. Dr. Hammond has also published extensively in the scientific and policy research literature; has lectured widely; and has served as a consultant to the White House, to several U.S. federal agencies, to the United Nations, and to several private foundations. Dr. Hammond holds advanced degrees in engineering and applied mathematics from Stanford University and Harvard University.